Asia Data Response Sri Lanka GDP (Q4) GDP growth in Sri Lanka accelerated last quarter according to the official figures, but is likely to slow in 2017 as fiscal and monetary policy are tightened. 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are rents in London approaching a ceiling? Rental growth in London has been weighed down by deteriorating affordability and falling tenant demand. With real wage growth now cooling and the risks to London tenant demand on the downside, we... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the Dutch election a litmus test for the rest of Europe? We suspect that a better-than-expected result for eurosceptic and populist parties in today’s Dutch general election would have little direct effect on support for eurosceptic parties elsewhere. 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Jan.) Today’s Labour Force Survey showed that job creation picked up in January. This adds to the evidence that occupier market conditions are likely to hold up fairly well this year. 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jan.) The latest labour market data show that average earnings growth is not picking up alongside inflation, resulting in a squeeze on real wage growth. However, we think that the tightness of the labour... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Icelandic interest rates still set to be cut later this year The Central Bank of Iceland’s decision to keep policy unchanged after the lifting of capital controls was unsurprising. The recent drop in the króna reduces the need for the CBI to cut interest rates... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update “Bad bank” alone would have limited impact The creation of a “bad bank” in India would help restructure the loans of India’s most heavily-indebted firms and should facilitate a clean-up of the balance sheets of commercial banks. But the... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Contrasting Fed & BoJ policy to boost dollar against the yen We think that the outlook for monetary policy in the US and Japan is consistent with an even stronger dollar against the yen. We are therefore sticking to our forecast that the exchange rate will rise... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Mar.) While the Westpac consumer confidence headline index held steady in March, the further weakening in confidence surrounding the housing market is consistent with an easing in house price inflation in... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Weathering the Trump storm We expect economic growth in Latin America to accelerate over the coming years as the effects of the downturn in global commodity prices fade, policy is loosened and financial conditions ease. Having... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will Article 50 trigger Brexit pain? While the imminent triggering of Article 50 will bring Brexit a step closer and could prompt a rise in uncertainty, there are still good reasons to expect the economy to remain resilient. 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Jan./Feb.) China’s activity and investment data for the first two months of the year point to robust metals demand. However, we are wary that this may represent the high point of 2017, given signs of a steadily... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Officials remain too cautious on structural reforms The latest reports and official comments from the National People’s Congress suggest that progress on reducing overcapacity and state sector reforms will remain sluggish this year. Unless policymakers... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia softening opposition to OPEC deal extension Saudi Arabia has continued to comply with its side of November’s OPEC agreement and recent comments from policymakers suggest that the Kingdom’s opposition to extending the deal beyond June is easing... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What to make of the renewed bid for Scottish Independence Scotland’s First Minister and SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon’s announcement that she is beginning the process to enact a second referendum on Scottish independence before the UK exits the EU far from... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
