Latin America Economics Update Meat scandal could be the latest threat to Brazil’s recovery It’s too soon to say exactly how events will play out, but at face value the developing scandal over Brazil’s meat exports could plausibly derail the country’s economic recovery. 20th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: Revised GDP data point to economy facing recession Revised Chilean GDP data confirmed that annual growth slowed to a seven-year low in Q4. They also revealed that the economy contracted from the previous quarter. With a strike at the country’s largest... 20th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf growth to be trimmed by oil output cuts Headline GDP growth in the Gulf looks is likely to slow to an eight-year low of 1.5% in 2017. However, this will be entirely the result of oil production cuts as countries comply with last year’s OPEC... 20th March 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Feb.) According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global primary aluminium output rose by 11.3% y/y last month, broadly unchanged from the 11.4% growth rate in January. 20th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Inflation still set to dampen real spending growth this year The annual rate of euro-zone inflation may be nearing a peak, but its effects on consumer spending growth have yet to come. With nominal wage gains unlikely to offset higher prices, we still see... 20th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Feb.) Our tracker suggests that EM capital outflows slowed to a three-year low in February. Outflows will probably increase over the coming months, but they are likely to remain subdued by recent standards. 20th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) Aggregate private sector debt rose the most on record in Q4 on the back of plunging funding costs. While household and corporate debt are rising again relative to output, the level of indebtedness... 20th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Sterling weathers call for indy ref 2 In the week Article 50 received Royal Assent, sterling halted its latest decline despite renewed calls for a second Scottish independence referendum. While the referendum announcement coincided with a... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Could the world cope with another oil price slump? The recent drop in oil prices has raised the question of how the world economy would cope with a another sustained slump in prices. While some big oil producers would take a hit, and inflation would... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Optimism prevails, for now It has been an eventful week in commodity markets but, for the most part, prices have risen. The US 25bp rate hike on Wednesday was widely anticipated so markets chose to focus on the fact that the... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Will the strength of emerging market currencies be sustained? 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed more confident despite softer start to 2017 The Fed’s decision to hike interest rates by 25bp last week may initially seem a little hard to square with the apparent weakening in the economic data since the start of the year, with the Atlanta... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Prod. (Feb.) & UoM Cons. Conf. (Mar.) The stagnation in industrial production in February was entirely due to another weather-related contraction in utilities output, with activity in the mining and manufacturing sectors continuing to... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Slow growth in labour earnings likely to persist Recent headline employment gains, mainly in full-time work, have been impressive. It turns out that most of the job creation over the past year have been in industries where hours worked are below... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How long will the bear market in Treasuries last? Although Treasury yields have fallen back a bit after this week’s anticipated tightening of US monetary policy, we think that the bear market in bonds will resume soon. If history is a guide, the 10... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
