Canada Economics Update Federal budget avoids policy change on uncertain outlook The 2017 Federal budget delivered today, which was largely a wait-and-see budget, is understandable given the highly uncertain outlook on US trade and fiscal policy. Furthermore, the government is... 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q1 2017 The latest People’s Bank surveys show that conditions for banks, firms and households have all continued to improve this quarter. But while the general picture was positive, there were also some dark... 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Feb.) World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 4.1% y/y rise in global steel production in February, in large part driven by rapid expansion in China and India. 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks jumped again last week due to a rise in imports, but there were further drops in inventories of gasoline and distillate fuel. 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Rising interest rates - how high would be too high? Given their low starting point, and a concurrent rise in income growth, we are optimistic that the housing market can withstand even our above-consensus forecast for mortgage interest rates to reach 5... 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Feb.) A lack of inventory weighed on existing home sales in February, which contracted by 3.7% m/m. With little chance of a sustained rise in the number of existing homes for sale over the next year, sales... 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Mar.) Data to mid-March showed another dip in Brazilian inflation and probably give enough cover for policymakers to accelerate interest rate cuts at next month’s Copom meeting. In practice, however, any... 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth no longer accelerating We’ve revised up our 2017 growth forecast for China following the recent run of strong data. At the same time though, the latest figures on our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggest that the acceleration... 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Feb.) Saudi inflation was in negative territory for a second consecutive month in February, but there are signs that deflation may not last much longer. 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Sensex closes in on record high Indian equities have rallied over the past few months, and the Sensex is now within touching distance of its all-time high. This reflects in part a broader pick-up across most major EM equity markets... 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Feb.) & Current Account (Q4) The falls in South African inflation last month and in the current account deficit in Q4 (data all released today) support our non-consensus view that the Reserve Bank will lower interest rates by... 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Labour Force Survey (Jan.) We doubt that the labour market is recovering as quickly as the decline in the Labour Force Survey measure of unemployment suggests. While things are gradually improving, wage growth looks set to... 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Can Carrie Lam solve Hong Kong’s problems? There is little doubt that Carrie Lam, the former head of Hong Kong’s civil service and the candidate preferred by Beijing, will be chosen on Sunday as the city’s next chief executive. But she won’t... 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Feb.) A large jump in exports in February resulted in the highest trade surplus since 2010. The upshot is that net trade should have continued to support growth this quarter. 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will EMs pick up the free-trade mantle? There is growing speculation that the largest EMs might step up to fill the void left by the US in the event of a protectionist shift under President Trump. However, there are good reasons why intra... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
