Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rumours of cabinet reshuffle rock rand Were Pravin Gordhan to actually be removed, we think that the rand could fall by another 5% against the USD. Even if he receives another stay of execution, economic factors will cause the currency to... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Strong surveys suggest economy is on the right track The activity data for January and February suggest that the economy got off to a slow start to the year. Our calculations suggest that first-quarter GDP growth will be a modest 2% annualised... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Retail Sales, Trade and PPI (Feb.) While today’s data suggests that Swedish growth may have slowed in Q1, it still looks set to be strong. And as PPI inflation remains high, inflationary pressures appear to be rising and we expect the... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can the ECB break its forward guidance? The ECB’s forward guidance about asset purchases and an extended period of low interest rates need not prevent it from starting to normalise policy should the inflation outlook so warrant. But it... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch The RBA’s primary concern may soon change Although the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting on Tuesday 4th April won’t be very exciting, as the RBA will leave interest rates at 1.5% for the sixth meeting in a row, events over the next month... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
RBI Watch RBI may have to tighten soon In light of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) signalling the end of the loosening cycle in its most recent policy meeting in February, most analysts are now expecting the central bank to keep rates on... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Health care failure doesn’t derail prospects for tax reform The health care bill fiasco doesn’t necessarily alter our view on the prospect for tax cuts. We had already pushed back our forecast of both the potential size of any fiscal stimulus and its timing... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana doubles down on rate cuts, Kenya will follow in H2 The Bank of Ghana’s sharp rate cut suggests that policy loosening will be more aggressive than we’d previously thought. We’ve revised down our end of year rate forecast from 20.00% to 18.00%. The... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: what to make of Aramco’s tax cut Today’s decision by the Saudi authorities to lower the tax rate applied to Aramco is unlikely to have any impact on the Kingdom’s day-to-day public finances. Instead, it simply reflects a shift in the... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Watch How will input costs affect aluminium prices? There are many drivers of the price of aluminium, including demand, supply and investor sentiment. However, in this Metals Watch, we are going to focus on the supply-side. In particular, we are going... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update February’s drop in EM inflation mainly a China story EM inflation fell sharply last month but this was driven almost entirely by a New Year-related drop in food inflation in China. This will reverse in March, meaning aggregate EM inflation is likely to... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India’s gold imports (Feb.) The latest import data from China and India show a mixed picture of gold demand in the two largest consumers. While China’s demand has started the new year on a soft note, an easing of the liquidity... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor The world trade recovery continues in Q1 The latest data suggest that the recovery in world trade which appeared to take hold at the end of last year has continued in 2017. What’s more, the immediate outlook seems reasonably bright, with... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy slows on back of oil output cuts Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed at the start of this year, which was entirely due to oil production cuts. There has been better news on the non-oil economy, where easing... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Mar.) March’s German Ifo supported other survey evidence that growth is accelerating sharply. The hard data so far paint a less positive picture, but the balance of evidence suggests that German growth this... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
