Industrial Metals Update Investors turn more bearish on metals Sentiment towards metals has soured somewhat over the past few weeks. We think that, in some cases valuations still look stretched, given prospects for further monetary tightening in the US and softer... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks rose slightly last week, however there were further drops in inventories of gasoline. 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Needle shifting slowly towards tighter policy Policymakers in the world’s major central banks have struck a more hawkish tone in recent weeks, but we expect policy to be tightened only in the US this year. While the ECB may announce plans to... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Trump ends the “war on coal” The prices of US natural gas and renewable power are likely to be far more important to the US coal industry than President Trump’s attempts to deregulate and revitalise it. 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Should investors be reassured by confident US consumers? Yesterday’s surge in the Conference Board’s index of US consumer confidence to a 16-year high of 125.6 is not, in our view, a reason to be positive about the outlook for the stock market. Our end-2017... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q4) Saudi Arabia’s economy picked up in the final quarter of 2016, supported by stronger growth in both the oil and non-oil sectors. Cuts to oil output on the back of the OPEC deal will trim headline... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Are US consumers too confident about the outlook for equities? 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: A guide to the latest Zuma-Gordhan struggle In this Update, we provide several scenarios outlining how the political drama sparked by rumours that Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan will be sacked could develop, and what it means for markets. 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Stronger income growth to support housing market A strong labour market, robust consumer confidence and the gradual return of first-time buyers means that the demand for homes will see further gains even as mortgage interest rates rise. But with... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Key questions following the triggering of Article 50 The triggering of Article 50 today is a political milestone that brings the UK one important step closer to actually leaving the EU. However, this is still an early step in what is set to be a lengthy... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Economic growth to slow again Economic growth has picked up recently, but we aren’t convinced the economy has turned the corner, particularly not when that growth is still so unbalanced. Non-commodity exports are lagging and... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the banks help or hinder Portugal’s recovery? There are some positive signs for Portugal’s banks, suggesting that they have become less of a risk to the public finances. But a meaningful recovery in lending over the next few years seems unlikely... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Fed takes a backseat in frontier financial markets Investors’ attention over the past month has been primarily focussed on the Federal Reserve and the expected number of interest rate hikes in the US this year, but other factors have arguably had a... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Feb.) Mortgage approvals fell in February, the first month-on-month fall since August. With a sharp rise buy-to-let unlikely and buyer demand growth paused, we expect only modest growth in mortgage... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Could office vacancy in German cities be about to diverge? With limited development pipelines, office markets in Frankfurt and Hamburg look set to tighten further over the next three years. However, rising completions in Berlin could see vacancy start to rise... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Feb.) Net lending to property contracted for the second consecutive month in February. This is likely to reflect liquidity issues in the investment market rather than a shortfall in demand. What’s more... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
