Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s central bank unfazed by inflation surge The Egyptian central bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged today confirmed that policymakers are looking through the recent surge in inflation but, while inflation should start to fall... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC hints at early koruna cap exit We think the next Czech MPC meeting on 4th May is the most likely date for a lifting of the koruna cap, but today’s comments by the Council have raised the risk that it happens outside of a scheduled... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB shifting towards a cut Today’s statement by the governor of the SARB suggests that policymakers will look through the current political crisis. Indeed, the tone of the statement – and the fact that one member voted for a... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Helsinki valuations still stack up despite yield falls Strong investor demand for core stock is pushing prime yields in Finland close to overvalued territory on our valuation measure. However, we think that industrial yields can fall into this value... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Colliers/REC Property Pricing Survey (Mar.) Today’s Property Pricing survey showed that, in contrast with consensus forecasts for the economy, sentiment appears to have become more bearish towards UK property. However, we would caution against... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM recovery broadens beyond China Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth has continued to pick up in recent months and is now running at a three-year high. While China’s recovery seems to be running out of steam, Emerging Europe and... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf markets give mixed response to oil price dip The recent dip in oil prices has prompted the usual drop in equity markets across the Gulf, but bond markets have fared better. In fact, spreads on the region’s dollar bond have actually narrowed over... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Strong start to 2017 unlikely to be sustained We estimate that non-farm payroll employment growth slowed to a still-healthy 190,000 in March, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.7% and annual wage growth holding steady at 2.8%. 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will rolling-back regulations help increase housing starts? The executive order requiring a review of the Waters of the United States rule has pushed homebuilder confidence to a 12-year high. However, the rule has been suspended since its introduction in 2015... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German, Spanish & Belgian Flash CPI (Mar.) March’s declines in headline consumer price inflation in Germany, Spain and Belgium reflected some temporary factors. But the big picture is still that underlying inflation throughout the euro-zone... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Mar.) Despite edging down in March, the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator suggests that euro-zone growth picked up in Q1. But with consumers’ inflation expectations levelling off recently, talk of tighter... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Mar.) March’s Economic Sentiment Indicators suggest that, in aggregate, growth in Central and Eastern Europe slowed a touch this month. However, regional growth over Q1 as a whole still appears to have been... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF Economic Barometer (Mar.) March’s rise in the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer to a three-and-a-half-year high provided further evidence that the economy made a positive start to 2017. But with inflation still low and persistent... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update GST a step closer to reality The passage of key legislation through the Lok Sabha marks another important step towards implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST). The legislation also provides greater clarity on the exact... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Services set to pull inflation higher A recent acceleration in producer prices of services combined with more upbeat survey evidence suggest that the prices that consumers pay for services will soon start picking up again. However, there... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
