UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Constructive tone to first exchanges In a jam-packed week of landmark political events the Brexit process got underway with both the EU and the UK seemingly approaching negotiations in a constructive mood. 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Markets getting ahead of themselves on rate outlook Financial markets appear to be ignoring the Bank of Canada’s latest warnings about the uncertain economic outlook and are pricing in an interest rate hike before the end of this year. In contrast, we... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Are consumers’ finances healthy as Brexit begins? Last week’s historic triggering of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty marks the beginning of a lengthy and complex process of leaving the EU. The extent to which this event has a near-term impact on the... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil bounces back The price of oil jumped this week on a combination of renewed fighting in Libya which disrupted oil production and speculation that OPEC members will extend their output cuts beyond the June deadline... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Will valuations help EM equities to outperform? While the comparatively low valuation of EM should ultimately stand them in good stead, we do not expect them to perform any better than their US counterparts this year. Fears of a bubble in the US... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q4 2016) The Russian economy’s return to positive year-on-year growth in Q4, of 0.3% y/y, was driven by stronger inventory investment and a shallower fall in consumer spending. These trends are likely to... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Should we be worried by the slump in bank lending? The sudden post-election weakness in bank lending is a concern. The three-month-on-three-month annualised growth rate has fallen from 8% in mid-2016 to less than 2% this February. However, the... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jan.) It’s tempting to conclude from the very strong 0.6% m/m gain in January GDP that the economy has turned the corner and that the Bank of Canada’s dovish take on the economy is out of tune with reality... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer spending relying on less saving While the latest Quarterly National Accounts raised further questions about the sustainability of consumer spending growth, we don’t think that a dramatic slowdown is in prospect. Household spending... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone growth to beat consensus this year Last week brought more evidence that the euro-zone economy has continued to perform very well and we have decided to upgrade our forecasts for the region significantly. Indeed, inflation has been more... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack South Africa: President Zuma goes for the nuclear option President Jacob Zuma reshuffled his cabinet on 30th March, sacking Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan and replacing some of his many critics with loyalists. The removal of Mr. Gordhan – who was seen as a... 31st March 2017 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Currencies and equities record further gains Asian currencies have gained ground against the US dollar over the past month as investors have pushed back their expectations on the number of interest rate rises in the US this year. Most Asian... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update US appears to soften stance on NAFTA, but long road ahead A leaked copy of a notification letter from the Trump administration to Congress suggests that its plans for renegotiating NAFTA are more consistent with the idea of creating a “North American... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch Three cheers for the price of lumber The US price of lumber has risen by close to 20% since the start of the year, following an increase of over 20% in 2016. Over the course of last year, the price was playing catch-up with developments... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q4) The latest Quarterly National Accounts highlighted that the economy as a whole expanded at a solid pace at the end of last year, although at first glance it raises some questions about the... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
