China Economics Update North Korea to distract from trade at Trump-Xi Summit We expect Donald Trump to tone down his criticism of China’s mercantilist policies when he meets Xi Jinping later today in order to focus on dealing with the more pressing threat from North Korea. If... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Growth slower but still solid in Q1 The last month has brought further signs that GDP growth has slowed a little from the rapid rates seen towards the end of last year. Output fell in all the main sectors in January. And the timelier... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI shifts towards tighter policy The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) opted to keep its benchmark repo rate on hold today, but the hike to the reverse repo rate represents a shift towards tighter monetary policy. Looking ahead, with... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: How could Zuma go? Mounting opposition to President Jacob Zuma has sparked speculation that he could be forced from office. In this Update, we examine the mechanics of removing a South African president. 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How big is the threat of deflation in the Gulf? The recent dip in Saudi inflation into negative territory following a period of weak growth has raised broader concerns about the threat of deflation in the Gulf. Our core inflation measures for the... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer Prices (Mar.) March’s Swiss inflation data do little to alter the picture of extremely subdued price pressures. With the core rate barely positive and inflation expectations very low, we expect the Swiss National... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The rise in consumer confidence in March left sentiment at the highest level it has been since autumn 2013 and suggests that consumption should continue to recover. However, households still expect... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update How will macro-prudential tools influence monetary policy? Central banks in Switzerland, Sweden and Norway have all voiced concerns about overheating in their housing markets. In Switzerland, macro-prudential policies have already served to cool house price... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Firing on all cylinders… The world economy has entered the second quarter in good shape. Business surveys edged higher in March and point to strong global growth in Q1. Consumer confidence in advanced economies has risen to a... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC suggests tightening is off the cards in 2017 The relatively dovish stance taken by the Polish MPC at today’s post-meeting press conference reinforces our view that monetary tightening is a long way off. We only expect interest rate hikes to come... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Volatility returns to oil prices Oil prices broke out of the relatively narrow trading range they had been in for the last few months at the start of March as investors became concerned about the effectiveness of OPEC’s deal to cut... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude oil stocks swelled last week contrary to expectations as production grew and exports slipped back. However, inventories of petroleum products still fell. 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are investors right to look past Spanish property? Investor appetite for commercial property in Spain appears to be fading. But with valuations still some way from looking stretched, and a positive outlook for rents, we believe that prime property... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Balance sheet stronger than many assume S&P’s decision to cut South Africa’s credit rating to “junk” has focused attention on the country’s current account and budget deficits. But South Africa’s balance sheet is actually in better shape... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Mar.) Mortgage applications for home purchase and refinance, as well as mortgage interest rates, were all stable during March. Indeed, all three have barely changed since the end of last year. Interest... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
