EM Markets Chart Pack Clouds on the horizon for EM assets It has been plain sailing for emerging market (EM) assets again over the past month, with equities and bonds both posting solid gains, and most currencies making more headway against the US dollar... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Mar.) March’s fall in inflation was partly due to temporary effects and inflation should rise in April. As there is now an increasing risk that inflation will overshoot the Riksbank’s target, later this... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks edge lower There was a general drawdown of stocks over the last month, albeit on a relatively small scale. The main exception was inventories of tin, which have fallen by nearly 25% in the last four weeks... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Political risks don’t warrant major growth revisions – yet… Political risks in some parts of the emerging world have escalated in recent weeks, but not to the extent that we are marking down our near-term growth forecasts. 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. African fiscal policy: What would be the first sign of a shift? South Africa’s cabinet reshuffle probably won’t have a significant effect on fiscal policy in 2017/2018. In this Update, we highlight what to watch for as the new finance minister settles into his... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Feb.) February’s industrial production data from Mexico were soft by most standards, but there is still no sign of the outright collapse that has been suggested by the recent business surveys. Indeed, as... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt set to pass first IMF review, but bigger tests to come The Egyptian government has probably made sufficient progress to pass the upcoming review of its IMF programme and receive the second tranche of its US$12bn loan. Investors are likely to welcome this... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Can Trump make American manufacturing great again? Globalisation has undoubtedly played some role in the loss of five million US manufacturing jobs over the past 15 years. But the evidence suggests that rapid productivity growth driven by automation... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook A rising tide Global growth has picked up in recent months and looks set to be fairly strong for the next two years. The US economy has a lot of momentum even without the planned fiscal stimulus, and prospects for... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK House Price Index (Feb.) The official house price index recorded a pick-up in house price growth during February. But with the index recently overstating house price pressures, that result should be interpreted with care. 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Prod. (Feb.) & German ZEW (Apr.) February’s small fall in euro-zone industrial production suggests that the sector had a weak Q1, but the slowdown should have been offset by stronger growth in other sectors. What’s more, the... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Mar.) March’s unchanged CPI inflation rate is just a temporary pause in an upward trend which will probably take inflation to just over 3% later this year. 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Stronger exports to boost growth in 2017 Buoyant global demand should help to support growth across most of Emerging Asia over the coming quarters, but mounting domestic headwinds mean a strong rebound is not on the cards. Although the... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Mar.) March’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor provides further evidence that higher inflation is starting to slow growth in household spending. But the timing of Easter makes it hard to draw any strong conclusions... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Does QQE expose the Bank of Japan to large losses? A sharp rise in interest rates could result in large losses for the Bank of Japan if it were ever to sell its huge stock of government bonds. But the Bank is keeping a lid on bond yields and will... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
