Commodities Update China’s commodity imports grow, but so do stocks Strong growth in China’s commodity imports in March would, at first glance, appear to be supportive of commodity prices. However, the rise in stocks of some commodities suggests that the buying has... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf: improving budget positions to allow austerity to ease Budget positions across the Gulf should improve over the next couple of years – and many will return to surplus – supported in large part by higher oil prices. As a result, governments across the... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How will the French economy fare after the election? France’s presidential election puts the country, and arguably the entire European Union, at a historic crossroads. The more likely path is one of liberal reforms that could boost growth and strengthen... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Money and credit expanding at a healthy pace Global monetary conditions remain supportive for the world economy. In the four major advanced economies, bank lending to both households and non-financial companies is expanding steadily, and... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy stumbles Activity data suggests that South Africa’s economy had a weak start to the year. Even so, we expect that growth will gain traction later this year, and that the economy will weather the recent... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (Mar.) Commercial property investment activity dipped marginally in March. However, quarterly activity was broadly in line with the long-term average, and there were few signs of foreign demand waning. 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Survey (Mar.) & Credit Conditions Survey (Q1) While mortgage availability held up in Q1, data from the Bank of England and the RICS paint a subdued picture for demand. That suggests that a resurgence in house price or activity growth is unlikely... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Five key calls for Emerging Asia The highlight of the coming week is a scheduled monetary policy meeting in Indonesia. Despite the poor growth outlook, we think interest rates will be left on hold against a backdrop of rising... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus “Overvalued” Swiss franc may rise further While conventional metrics give some support to the Swiss National Bank’s view that the franc is “significantly overvalued”, the evidence from the economy implies that it is not. What’s more, we think... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is the surge in employment a sign of things to come? We doubt that the surge in Australian employment in March will mark the beginning of a sustained rebound in employment growth. Indeed, a deeper dive into the latest employment trends in different... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Mar.) The latest trade data point to buoyant external demand but suggest that domestic demand may have started to cool. 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Mar.) The huge leap in employment in March looks suspicious to us and we think the stagnation in the unemployment rate at a 14-month high of 5.9% is a better signal of the state of the labour market. That... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Monetary policy in Singapore to stay on hold With the growth outlook improving and inflation likely to remain fairly subdued, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), which today left its monetary policy settings unchanged, is likely to be in... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada in no mood to raise interest rates The Bank of Canada’s decision today to keep its policy interest rate at 0.50% and to stay neutral on the outlook for rates is understandable given how uneven recent economic growth has been. Until... 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude oil stocks fell last week for only the second time this year as net imports declined and inputs to refineries increased. Meanwhile, inventories of petroleum products continued to fall. 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update When will the MPC start to reverse QE? The fact that the MPC is unlikely to start to reverse its QE programme for a considerable period supports our view that interest rates will rise sooner and more quickly than is generally expected. 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
