Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Apr.) April’s rise in the euro-zone composite PMI added to evidence that the economy is faring very well, pointing to strong GDP growth of up to 0.7% per quarter. 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rupee surges to 20-month high The rally in the Indian rupee since the start of 2017 has continued in recent weeks, driving the currency to its highest rate against the US dollar in almost two years. While we doubt that the rally... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Turning (a bit) hawkish on New Zealand The period of ultra-low inflation in New Zealand is well and truly over. While we still believe that the financial markets are too hawkish in expecting the official cash rate to start rising this year... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily What does the French presidential election herald for markets? 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Still no hints of policy tightening The ECB is likely to stick to the script this month, with a weak outlook for underlying inflation justifying its plan to buy assets until at least the end of the year. The Bank will probably drop the... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Has the shift to single-family starts stalled? Following a dip towards the end of last year, the share of multifamily starts has recovered and builders have become more optimistic towards the sector. Our expectation for a shift toward single... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Deleveraging well underway, but few signs of financial stress Our latest Banking Heat Map shows that, while Latin America’s credit bubbles have continued to deflate, this doesn’t yet appear to have triggered widespread problems in the region’s banking sectors... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will surging confidence boost consumer spending? The recent surge in consumer confidence appears to have been partly driven by the election of President Donald Trump, but the strength of the labour market, rising equity prices and low gasoline... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Politics dominates the headlines but market impact limited The escalation of political risks has dominated the headlines in EMs in recent weeks, but the fallout in financial markets has been surprisingly small. Equities in Russia and South Korea initially... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Housing supply boosted by change of use Net additions to the dwelling stock reached an eight-year high in 2016. Traditional completions still dominate, but changes to the permitted development rules in 2013 seem increasingly to be bearing... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Apr.) Data to mid-April showed that Brazilian inflation has fallen below the BCB’s central target for the first time in almost seven years. We expect it to fall further over the coming months, before... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Mar.) The extremely strong batch of Polish activity data for March suggests that the economy may have grown by as much as 4.5% y/y over Q1 as a whole, up from 2.7% y/y in Q4 of last year. This supports our... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Mar.) According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global primary aluminium output rose by just 4.3% y/y in March, but was still up by nearly 9% in the first quarter. 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Household credit boom set to slow Household borrowing has soared over recent months, largely in the form of mortgages. But this boom is probably nearing an end. Restrictions on property purchases have been reintroduced in many cities... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia unlikely to cut rates despite poor growth outlook Despite the relatively poor growth outlook, Bank Indonesia (BI) left its key policy rate on hold at 4.75% today. With inflation set to rise over the coming months and the rupiah vulnerable to sudden... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Are bank branch closures another sign of high street woes? It is tempting to view the latest round of bank branch closures as another sign of the continuing struggles of UK high streets. Yet not only are the latest closures just the latest point in a well... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
