Energy Update How concerned should the oil market be about rising tensions? The increase in political tensions in the Middle East and North Korea had given oil prices a bit of a boost, but this already seems to have faded. Indeed, barring a dramatic escalation of the... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to signal end of asset purchases As next week’s monetary policy meeting is the last before asset purchases are set to end in June, the Riksbank will probably signal whether they will be extended. While CPIF inflation, which excludes... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Quantifying the economic costs of political tensions Fears that last month’s cabinet reshuffle will knock South Africa’s economy off course have dominated the headlines. But it will be some time before we have enough information to fully quantify the... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update High consumer confidence bodes well for the world economy Consumer confidence has risen in recent months in much of the developed world. This bodes well for household spending and global growth prospects. Consumer confidence indices are usually composites of... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would Marine Le Pen’s margin of defeat make a difference? Assuming that Marine Le Pen loses in the second round of the French presidential election, her most radical eurosceptic and protectionist policies will gain little traction at home over the next five... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Have euro-zone property yields hit their floor? Our upwardly revised forecasts for 10-year euro-zone government bond yields imply a sharper rise in prime property yields towards the end of our five-year forecast horizon. That said, the stronger... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Cuts to inflation forecast to underline need for loose policy With economic growth strengthening recently, a slim majority of analysts now expects the Bank of Japan to start tightening policy by the end of next year. But stronger growth has failed to generate... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1) The further strengthening in underlying price pressures in the first quarter has increased the chances that the RBNZ will raise interest rates earlier than we had been expecting. Both we and the RBNZ... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Mar.) Export values slumped in March as distortions related to the Lunar New Year unwound. Nonetheless, we still expect net exports to provide another boost to Q1 GDP growth. 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Core inflation restrained by new competitive pressures The drop back in core CPI inflation to a 17-month low of 2.0% in March was partly due to weather effects, but also reflects an increase in competitive pressures in some sectors, which will persist for... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Has Theresa May gone to the polls just in time? With the economy’s strength set to wane somewhat this year, Theresa May’s gamble to go to the polls to increase the Conservative’s majority may have been just in the nick of time. There is some... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The continued rebound in refinery activity led to a modest fall in US crude oil stocks and a rise in gasoline stocks last week. 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Outlook has brightened despite political risk The euro-zone has continued to perform very well and we now expect growth to be stronger than the consensus forecast this year and next. Inflation has been lower than we had assumed, meaning that... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Have inflation worries gone for good? The recent decline in global inflation expectations has reflected some benign news both on inflation itself and on its key drivers. But even if inflation expectations fall further, markets should be... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Sterling welcomes May’s election call The Prime Minister’s call for a snap General Election saw the pound surge higher despite expectations for future interest rates remaining more or less unchanged, having fallen over the preceding month... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
