Capital Daily Rally in French bonds unlikely to last, even if Macron wins in May 24th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Apr.) & IGAE Act. (Feb.) Mexican inflation continued to rise in the first half of April, hitting a fresh seven-year high of 5.6% y/y. That being said, the stability of the peso over recent weeks means it’s probably close to... 24th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Industrial sector leading the way The latest property market data sit well with our view that the industrial sector will prove to be a bright spot this year. What’s more, there were few signs to make us reconsider our view that rental... 24th April 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Will the shake-up of the Brent oil benchmark affect prices? We expect the change in the method for assessing the Brent global benchmark to have a negligible effect on the price of Brent going forward. Rather, we anticipate fundamental factors such as stronger... 24th April 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi benefit cut U-turn not a major cause for alarm The Saudi government’s decision to reinstate benefits for civil servants appears to be a U-turn on one of the more unpopular austerity measures, rather than the start of a wholesale reversal of recent... 24th April 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Mar.) World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 5.7% y/y rise in global steel production in the first quarter. Output rose strongly in all regions of the world. 24th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Fragile recoveries in Russia and Turkey The latest activity data from Russia and Turkey suggest that both economies lost momentum in Q1. Our GDP Trackers indicate that output in Russia stagnated in annual terms (following an expansion of 0... 24th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Apr. & Q2) The slightly softer tone of April’s CBI Industrial Trends Survey suggests that the manufacturing sector started Q2 on a fairly weak footing. But the survey’s forward-looking elements suggest any... 24th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Early signs that growth is edging down Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth softened slightly at the end of Q1. There are good reasons to think that this foreshadows a broader slowdown in the economy in coming quarters. 24th April 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Output Monitor (Feb./Mar.) China’s refinery output picked up pace in the first quarter, encouraged by higher prices and optimism about demand. Iron ore and steel production were growing particularly strongly, but prices have... 24th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Apr.) April’s further rise in the German Ifo contrasted with the fall in the PMI in the same month, but both surveys point to very strong growth in the euro-zone’s largest economy. 24th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Macron-Le Pen run-off raises hopes for French revival The opinion polls were right for once and a strong showing for centrist liberal reformer Emmanuel Macron in the first round of the French election has raised hopes of growth-boosting labour market... 24th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Feb.) Our New Zealand Activity Proxy (NZAP) indicates that the slowdown in GDP growth at the end of last year was temporary. In fact, February’s NZAP is consistent with a pick-up in GDP growth, from 0.4% q... 24th April 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Better economic news fails to boost prices Concerns about oil demand in the US weighed on prices this week. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia has indicated that OPEC is close to agreeing an extension to its output cuts, which are currently due... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Markets give snap election the thumbs up The positive response of the pound to the surprise announcement of a snap General Election suggests that a larger Conservative majority, and stability in Government over the Brexit implementation... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Strong growth throughout, but policy to diverge Prospects appear to have improved for all of the Nordic and Swiss economies, with surveys pointing to annual GDP growth of up to 3% in Switzerland and 5% in Sweden. Inflation has been subdued on the... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
