Emerging Markets Trade Monitor A solid first quarter for EM exports EM export growth softened a little in February but we think this was due in large part to one-offs, including the timing of the Chinese New Year and the effects of 2016’s leap year dropping out of the... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Mar.) Existing home sales delivered an upside surprise in March, reaching their highest level in almost a decade. Yet that rise needs to be seen in the context of the previous month’s sharp drop and sales... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly IMF naïve on Canada outlook The International Monetary Fund’s latest assessment of Canadian growth prospects is unfortunately naïve. Although the economy expanded strongly at the start of this year, that was partly due to the... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Apr.) Preliminary PMIs, which were published by Markit today, suggest that the recovery in advanced economies continued in April. 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) Falling gasoline price inflation led to a drop in the headline inflation rate to 1.6% in March, from 2.0%, and core inflation dipped further below the 2% mid-point of the Bank of Canada’s target range... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Key questions about the French election After a tumultuous and ultimately nail-biting campaign, French voters head to the polls on Sunday to begin the process of electing their President. The opinion polls suggest that this first-round vote... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Competitive pressures to weigh on core inflation The unexpected decline in core consumer prices in March is not a signal of sudden weakness in the real economy. Nevertheless, it is partly due to heightened competition in some sectors, which will... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will Mr Hammond now “reset” fiscal policy? By freeing the Government from its previous manifesto commitments, the snap general election on June 8th could give the Chancellor Phillip Hammond (if he is still in the position) more elbow room to... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Spending slowdown underway A poor quarter on the high street in Q1 suggests that the slowdown in consumer spending growth is gathering pace. Moreover, with the full impact of the forthcoming rise in inflation yet to be felt... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Mar.) According to our latest detailed estimates, China’s net capital outflows have been close to zero during the past two months. This is a major shift from late last year when monthly outflows exceeded... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is the pound set for a pre-Brexit rally? The jump in sterling after Theresa May’s surprise announcement of a snap general election has posed the question of whether the pound might defy expectations and rise further as Brexit approaches... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Saudi Arabia hints at OPEC deal extension Recent comments from Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister, Khalid al-Falih, suggest that OPEC is edging towards an agreement to extend its oil production cuts when it meets in Vienna next month. Having ruled... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Improving economy bodes well for Moscow real estate With the Russian economy returning to growth, a gradual improvement in Moscow occupier markets should support a further recovery in investment volumes, pushing prime yields down. 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) March’s drop in retail sales suggests that the consumer spending slowdown is gathering pace and adds to other evidence indicating that the economic recovery has slowed since the end of last year. 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central & Eastern Europe: a strong Q1 The latest surveys and monthly activity figures suggest that the economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) made a strong start to the year. And Poland appears to have seen one of its fastest... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
