Europe Economics Update Macron can’t rely on National Assembly support for reforms Even if centrist Emmanuel Macron wins the second round of the presidential election, his En Marche! party almost certainly won’t secure a majority in the National Assembly following June’s legislative... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Strength in nominal spending offers some comfort The fall in retail sales volumes in Q1 2017 suggests that the slowdown in consumer spending growth is gathering pace. But the recent strength of nominal spending offers some comfort. Retail sales... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Why we are no longer expecting more rate cuts The Reserve Bank of Australia will almost certainly leave interest rates on hold at 1.5% at the meeting on Tuesday 2nd May and, in a change to our central forecast, we now no longer expect it to cut... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Downhill from here The prices of many commodities have come off the boil recently on fading optimism about demand, rising geopolitical risk and the prospect of further US monetary tightening and dollar appreciation. Of... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude oil stocks slumped for the third consecutive week as demand from refineries rose to its highest level on record. Meanwhile, both gasoline and distillate inventories increased sharply. 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Household sector still boosting economy The economy likely began this year strongly, with real GDP expanding at an annualised quarterly growth rate of 4.5%. The strength in monthly housing and consumption indicators, however, show that the... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global fiscal policy likely to be eased slightly this year and next We expect aggregate fiscal policy in advanced economies to be loosened slightly in the coming year or two. President Trump will not succeed in passing the “phenomenal” tax cuts which he has promised... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed still on track for a June rate hike The Fed is almost certain to leave interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting, which concludes next Wednesday, but the statement should keep open the prospect of a hike in June. Admittedly, the... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Why are new buyer enquiries so subdued? The subdued level of new buyer enquiries could be seen as further evidence of the headwinds facing households this year. But we think it is best viewed as a sign that recent distortions have worked... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Devaluation fears fade in the Gulf, Tunisia’s dinar falls Fears that low oil prices would force the Gulf countries to devalue their currencies have continued to fade over the past month. However, one country in the region where the authorities have loosened... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC steps up inflation fight The Turkish MPC’s surprise move to tighten monetary policy further today via another hike in the late liquidity rate indicates that policymakers may have a greater resolve to tackle the country’s... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Regional recovery remains uneven Latin America’s economy has strengthened in the early months of this year – in fact, our GDP Tracker suggests that year-on-year growth returned to positive territory in Q1 for the first time since mid... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi may be approaching a turning point Analysts are convinced that the renminbi can only go one way – down against the dollar. But a return to appreciation is looking increasingly plausible. 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook The Capital Markets Analyst Q2 2017 - As good as it gets for US assets? We think that the best days are over for assets in the US, in both absolute and relative terms. For example, we expect bond yields to rise further there than in other developed economies over the next... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Economic Tendency Survey (Apr.) The sharp jump in the Swedish Economic Tendency Indicator is consistent with our view that in tomorrow’s monetary policy announcement the Riksbank will signal an end to its asset purchases programme... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
