Global Economics Update Global growth likely to rebound after weak Q1 Global growth slowed quite sharply in the first quarter of 2017, largely due to weaker activity in China and the US. However, we expect growth in the world as a whole to rebound in Q2. 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: EU to confirm negotiating stance Leaders of the EU27 are set to convene in Brussels tomorrow to formally agree Brexit negotiating guidelines. By insisting that sufficient progress is made on a withdrawal agreement before future trade... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update French election pushed currencies down and yields up Following Mr Macron’s victory in the first round of the French presidential election, Nordic and Swiss currencies depreciated and government bond yields rose. And dovish comments from policymakers at... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Geopolitical concerns keep commodity prices volatile This week has been dominated by speculation about whether OPEC will extend its output cuts at its next semi-annual meeting at the end of May. Even though an extension now appears likely, this failed... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Explaining the divergence between pending and existing sales The gap that has developed between pending and existing home sales looks to be one more consequence of very low inventory levels. With such limited choice, buyers are increasingly reluctant to pull... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Softwood lumber dispute isn’t start of potential trade war The decision by the US Commerce Department to impose preliminary import duties of close to 20% on Canadian softwood lumber isn’t a big surprise to domestic producers, nor will it seriously threaten... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Could a foreign profit tax pay for Trump’s fiscal plans? The tax plan released by the White House on Wednesday was short on detail, but looked broadly similar to President Donald Trump’s pre-election plan. With the deep cuts to individual income and... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Concerns over regulatory tightening spook investors China’s equity markets saw the biggest fall since 2016 in April after policymakers ramped up their rhetoric on limiting financial risks. Meanwhile, the renminbi has remained stable against the US... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Feb.) Despite further gains in housing-related activity, monthly GDP was unchanged in February, dragged down by weakness in export-orientated manufacturing. This demonstrates that, despite the strength in... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Geopolitics trumps local events in frontier financial markets Headlines in the past month have been dominated by local political events in frontier markets. In Venezuela, violent mass protests have swept the country. Meanwhile, the victory of Serbia’s Prime... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q1, Prov.) First quarter GDP data from Mexico confirmed what we have long suspected – that the survey data have been overstating the weakness in the real economy. In fact, the economy grew at a reasonably... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q1 1st Estimate) The trivial 0.7% annualised gain in first-quarter GDP, below the consensus forecast at 1.2%, won’t stop the Fed from hiking interest rates again in June. 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Does more need to be done to bring the deficit down? The large fall in public borrowing in the 2016-17 fiscal year could suggest that the process of deficit reduction is almost complete and that the Conservatives can keep their pledge not to raise the... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will France’s economy help Macron or Le Pen? We think that the French economy is in better shape than data released this week suggest. On balance, its underlying health should boost support for the centrist presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Bank Lending Survey provides more good news for ECB This week’s Bank Lending Survey brought more good news for the ECB. Lending conditions have continued to improve, and growth in the demand for credit points to a continued decent recovery in... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
