US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Apr.) Despite a drop in mortgage rates, mortgage applications for both home purchase and refinance essentially just held their ground in April. That subdued picture reflects a lack of homes for sale, as... 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will materials costs hit housebuilding? A weak pound has driven materials price inflation for housebuilders to a six-year high. All else equal, rising materials costs will dent builder margins, but they are unlikely to prevent further gains... 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Mar.) March’s industrial production data from Brazil were ugly, but according to our estimates the sector still made a positive contribution to GDP growth over Q1 as a whole. 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Has Marine Le Pen gone soft on “Frexit”? National Front presidential candidate Marine Le Pen has often been at pains throughout this election campaign to avoid the topic of a French exit from the European Union and the euro. But this is... 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1 Prel. Flash) & PPI (Mar.) The “preliminary flash” estimate of euro-zone GDP supported the message from earlier national data that the recovery maintained a decent pace in Q1. However, economic growth is still putting little... 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Apr.) April’s rise in the CIPS/Markit Construction PMI chimed well with yesterday’s rise in manufacturing activity. That said, commercial construction activity was more subdued implying that development... 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Apr.) April’s PMI data suggest that non-oil sectors in the Gulf have continued to recover from last year’s austerity-led slump. Elsewhere, the PMIs brought further evidence that Egypt is feeling the... 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Apr.) The further rise in Turkish inflation in April, to 11.9% y/y, probably marks the peak for the headline rate, and it should slowly reverse course in the coming months. As things stand, our sense is... 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q1) While employment growth strengthened in the first quarter and the unemployment rate dropped back below 5.0%, wage growth remained stubbornly low. We believe that wage growth will remained fairly muted... 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: lower structural interest rate depends on fiscal reform There is now broad agreement in financial markets that interest rates in Brazil will fall into single digits this year, but keeping them there will require the “neutral” or “structural” level of... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Home Capital Group won’t trigger housing bust The financial difficulties at alternative mortgage lender Home Capital Group (HCG) don’t necessarily mark the end of the housing boom, since it is too small to matter. But with signs that the housing... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) Despite the dip in survey data in April, global manufacturing conditions are still in good shape. We expect world GDP growth to rebound in Q2 following a weak first quarter. 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack A bumpy ride for commodities The prices of many commodities had a volatile month, led by the price of oil which is being buffeted by a lack of clarity on future supply. Industrial metals prices fell sharply on renewed concerns... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery softens at the start of Q2 April’s PMI data suggest that the recovery in emerging market manufacturing lost a bit of steam at the start of Q2. Nonetheless, the survey is still consistent with continued expansion, albeit at a... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Should we be worried about the GDP slowdown? Q1’s GDP figures – which revealed a sharp slowdown in economic growth – have unsurprisingly raised concern that the economy is finally experiencing a major Brexit-related slowdown. However, there are... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Tax reform likely to give housing market a boost President Trump’s plan to raise the standard deduction would make the mortgage interest deduction less valuable, which has raised some concerns in the housing industry. But, if anything, with... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
