UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Mar.) March’s household borrowing figures provide another reason to think that the consumer slowdown shouldn’t be too severe. Moreover, continued strong credit growth shouldn’t panic policymakers into... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Business confidence holds up This week’s survey indicators provided mixed signals regarding the economic effect of political turbulence in South Africa. But they do, at least, suggest that the immediate economic hit may have been... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Mar.) Mortgage approvals for house purchase fell in March, weighed down by high house prices and subdued buyer enquiries. Yet with the economic backdrop still supportive, lending should gradually recover... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Mar.) Net lending to both the UK economy and property returned to positive territory in March. What’s more, with their exposure to the property sector at a 15-year low, traditional lenders are giving little... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Mar.) & Final PMIs (Apr.) Despite March’s rise in retail sales, consumer indicators suggest that household spending growth slowed in Q1. Meanwhile, the final euro-zone Composite PMI implies that the economy made a strong start... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Apr.) & H’hold Borrowing (Mar.) April’s Markit/CIPS Services PMI implies that quarterly GDP growth will bounce back from the sharp slowdown experienced in Q1. And March’s household borrowing figures suggest that consumer spending... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank stands pat, but a rate cut not far off The Norges Bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged came as no surprise, but we are among a very small minority of forecasters who think that the Bank will cut rates later in the year. 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Mar.) The international trade surplus is well past its peak and will probably continue to fall in the coming months. What’s more, the nominal surplus in the first quarter won’t prevent net exports from... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - RBNZ’s rate projections may reflect upturn in inflation While the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will almost certainly keep the official cash rate on hold at 1.75% at its policy meeting on Thursday 11 th May, in light of the stronger-than-anticipated first... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Nordic & Swiss currencies to rebound from April’s falls After depreciating against the euro in April, we think that the Swiss franc, Swedish krona and Norwegian krone will rebound, but for different reasons. Political risk could yet re-escalate in Europe... 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Investor sentiment sours The prices of both industrial and precious metals suffered last month from waning investor optimism about the outlook for demand. Indeed, concerns appeared justified as China’s manufacturing PMI... 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A sharp fall in the amount of oil in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) prevented commercial stocks from falling by as much as expected. 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil and Mexico survey data continue to diverge April’s survey data point to a continued improvement in Brazil’s economy at the start of Q2, while in Mexico they suggest conditions have deteriorated further. But with provisional Q1 GDP data for... 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investment rises, but concerns about pricing grow Investment activity in Mainland Europe started the year strongly and demand looks similarly robust so far in Q2. And as occupier fundamentals continue to strengthen, we expect valuations will become... 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria & Angola: Light at the end of the tunnel After a year of contraction, the economies of Nigeria and Angola are finally recovering. Growth will stay weak by recent standards, but will probably outpace overly-bearish consensus expectations. 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
