Global Economics Update World economy can cope with slowdown in China The slowdown in China which now appears to be underway may prompt periodic bouts of nerves in financial and commodity markets. But we expect China’s growth rate to slow only gradually, rather than to... 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf economies better placed to deal with low oil prices The recent fall in oil prices has reignited fears over the outlook for the Gulf, but as we explain in this Watch these countries are in a better position now to weather a period of low oil prices than... 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Apr.) Chilean inflation remained weak at 2.7% y/y in April, but even so, with the economy finally showing tentative signs of picking up, the central bank is likely to pause its easing cycle at next week’s... 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Will Fed tightening prove too strong a headwind for gold? The resilience in the price of gold this year has come as a surprise given the prospect of further monetary tightening in the US. Safe-haven demand appears to have been the main driver of prices. But... 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Apr.) House prices fell a touch in April – meaning that prices have now failed to rise for four months running. However, with both the economic backdrop and future price expectations still solid, a house... 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s import demand comes off the boil China’s commodity import volumes dropped back in April, with a notable downturn in the more industrial commodities. Volumes are likely to remain volatile in the coming months, but the prospect of... 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation set to rise, but outlook benign We think headline inflation will have risen in April and expect a further pick-up over the next few months. But price pressures should remain contained over the course of this year. Meanwhile, the... 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Macron victory provides relief but challenges remain Yesterday’s election of centrist liberal Emmanuel Macron as the next French President bodes well for the revitalisation of France’s lacklustre economy and the European project more generally. But he... 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Mar.) Turkish industrial production growth in March was a little stronger than expected, but the 2.8% y/y expansion still paints a picture of a slow recovery from last year’s slump. 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade & FX Reserves (Apr.) Chinese trade is still growing rapidly but shipments are beginning to slow, with cooling domestic demand weighing on imports. Meanwhile, capital outflows are edging up again despite the recent rise in... 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Apr.) We are not too worried about the drop in consumer confidence in April as the index remains near multi-year highs. What’s more, the survey remains consistent with a rebound in durable goods consumption... 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will the BoJ again follow the Fed and the ECB? There is less evidence of spare capacity in Japan’s economy than in the euro-zone which might suggest that the Bank of Japan is likely to hike rates before the ECB. However, the Bank has pledged to... 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities take a hit The prices of oil, iron ore and many of the industrial metals plunged this week. Investor concerns about demand resurfaced as China’s manufacturing PMIs for April pointed to slower economic activity... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Public spat shows compromise won’t be easy Press reports of growing animosity between the UK and EU have this week given a sense that the prospects for a successful and orderly Brexit have deteriorated. But formal negotiations are not yet... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How would markets react to a Macron victory? Investors breathed a sigh of relief after Emmanuel Macron claimed the largest share of the vote in the first round of the French presidential election, and there is scope for a further rally if, as... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing boom turning to bust Average home sale price data contain far more timely market information about potential turns in the housing cycle than the aggregate house price indices that are more closely watched. That said, all... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
