Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ wary of raising interest rates too soon The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision to leave interest rates at 1.75% today and signal that it doesn’t expect to raise rates until late 2019 supports our view that the financial markets have got... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Is central bank independence under threat? Despite the criticisms levelled at them over the past year, central banks are not likely to be stripped of their independence anytime soon, or have their mandates radically changed. Politicians who... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude oil stocks declined by the largest amount so far this year, in spite of increasing US oil production. Gasoline and distillate inventories also fell, as demand for petroleum products continued to... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch Poor prospects for the price of palm oil The price of palm oil has been falling so far in 2017, in tandem with most other agricultural commodities. In this Commodities Watch, we will discuss whether the recent price weakness is justified by... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily UK monetary policy outlook suggests Gilt yields are set to rise 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Auto sector woes not enough to knock economy off course A flood of off-lease vehicles has hit used car prices and new vehicle sales, and the glut of vehicles still in the pipeline suggests that the sector’s woes will worsen in the months ahead. But this is... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Apr.) The collapse in Brazilian inflation to a decade-low of 4.1% y/y in April paves the way for another 100bp cut in the Selic rate (to 10.25%) at the next COPOM meeting on 31 st May. 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Mind the gap: CEE economies running out of slack One important consequence of the recent period of strong growth in Central and Eastern Europe is that economies are now running at close to full employment. We expect growth to remain robust over the... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What does Macron’s victory mean for the UK? Emmanual Macron’s victory in Sunday’s French presidential election is potentially good news for the UK economy and might also provide the best background for the Brexit negotiations. 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can Macron succeed where others have failed? New French President Emmanuel Macron has a better chance than his predecessors of overhauling France’s sclerotic labour market and bloated public sector. But he may still have to dilute some of his... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr.) Our Tracker shows that net capital outflows from emerging markets picked up in April. Outflows will probably accelerate further later this year, but they are likely to remain subdued by recent... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Shift in Riksbank stance unlikely until turn of the year Today’s Riksbank minutes suggest that the proponents of last month’s shock QE extension are unlikely to change their minds on the direction of monetary policy any time soon. So there is little chance... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices (Apr.) The sharp decline in Norwegian CPI-ATE inflation has paused over the past three months, but it should soon resume. We think that it will fall to 1.0% later in the year, and remain well below the... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Apr.) The further rise in Egyptian inflation last month, to 31.5% y/y, was driven entirely by stronger food price pressures. We think inflation is now close to a peak and today’s figures are unlikely to... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.) Consumer price inflation edged up last month but broad price pressures still appear fairly subdued. Meanwhile, the rapid rise in producer price inflation since late last year is now reversing, thanks... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: progress on reform slows ahead of legislative elections President Macri has made solid progress in tackling Argentina’s economic vulnerabilities over the past eighteen months but reform momentum more recently has slowed. With legislative elections... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
