Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf likely to push back against calls for deeper oil output cuts This month’s dip in oil prices means that it is almost certain OPEC will agree to an extension to its oil output cuts into the second half of this year. But we think Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the G7 due a recession? It is often claimed that the current expansion has lasted so long that a recession must be just around the corner. But history suggests that there is no such hard-and-fast rule. 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC output falls below target OPEC’s production was relatively flat in April, but the group significantly increased its forecast of non-OPEC output this year again. Whilst this should not prevent the group from rolling over its... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Will tax cuts boost sustainable GDP growth to 3 percent? There is little evidence to support the claim by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin that tax cuts would pay for themselves by boosting economic growth to 3% or even higher, particularly not when the... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK MPC suggests rates to rise sooner than markets expect May’s Bank of England Inflation Report confirmed that the Monetary Policy Committee is in no hurry to raise interest rates. But it also lent some support to our view that it will begin to tighten... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Mar.) South Africa’s PGM output grew strongly in Q1 but, going forward, we expect reduced investment over the past few years to start denting supply. 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Industrial sectors held up in Q1 Mining and manufacturing figures show that both sectors unexpectedly strengthened at the end of Q1. This may cushion the impact of any hit to consumer confidence caused by recent political turbulence. 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi public finance figures suggest big spending cuts are over New quarterly public finance figures released by the Saudi government today show a sharp narrowing in the budget deficit at the start of this year, supported by higher oil revenues. The data also... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (Apr.) Weaker investment market activity is fairly typical at this time of year. Even so, activity this April was particularly soft due to a very low number of deals. That said, there were no signs that... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines to keep rates on hold this year Today’s decision by the central bank in the Philippines (BSP) to keep its main policy rate on hold at 3.0% had been widely expected. But while the consensus among analysts is that the BSP will hike... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Mar.) Today’s activity data re-affirmed that the economy lost some momentum in Q1 but showed some signs that GDP growth is becoming slightly better balanced. 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Further FDI reform will prove more difficult Recent measures to further ease restrictions on foreign direct investment into India should help to build on one of the main policy successes of the Modi government so far. But the government may now... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Icelandic rate cut on the cards Following the sharp drop in the Icelandic króna after the lifting of capital controls in March, we pushed back our forecast for an Icelandic interest rate cut from May to August. But since the... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Apr.) Today’s data from the RICS paint a gloomy picture for demand and activity in the housing market. That appears consistent with our view that house price growth will be constrained by the pace of... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss & Swedish Consumer Prices (Apr.) The sharp divergence in Swiss and Swedish inflation in April supports our views that the Swiss National Bank will need to keep monetary policy loose for a long time to come but that Sweden’s Riksbank... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Apr.) Despite an improvement in April, today’s Economy Watchers Survey remains consistent with falling manufacturing activity. It also points to a slowdown in job growth, though the survey has not been a... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
