US Economics Update NFIB and JOLT surveys suggest full employment is close Recent surveys show that the strength of business sentiment is fuelling a recovery in capital investment while ensuring that firms’ demand for labour is as strong as ever. With the pool of unemployed... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Budget response: Where’s the boost to the economy? Despite all the headlines suggesting that the Treasurer has embarked on an infrastructure spending spree, the fiscal figures appear to show that the economy is not going to be significantly stronger... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Homes selling fast as inventory shortage worsens The inventory of homes for sale continues to decline. The months’ supply of existing single-family homes dropped to just 3.9 in March, the lowest reading since records began in 1982. The lack of homes... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update US gasoline consumption to accelerate after weak start We expect growth in US gasoline demand to pick up over the rest of the year as employment and wages rise. What’s more, a trend towards purchases of used cars and light trucks should offset reductions... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will consumers remain confident enough to keep on spending? The evidence that consumers are gloomier about the economic outlook but upbeat about their own finances doesn’t sit comfortably together. So which picture of the consumer – unconcerned enough to... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Apr.) Mexican inflation continued to rise in April and, with inflation expectations starting to tick up again, we think the central bank is likely to opt for another 25bp hike in its policy interest rate... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export growth reaching its peak EM export growth reached a 5-year high in March, rounding off a strong quarter. We expect this is probably the peak but a healthy global environment means that the EM export recovery is likely to slow... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What does Moon’s victory mean for South Korea? The election of Moon Jae-in as South Korea’s next president is unlikely to have a major impact on the country’s economic outlook. Moon’s Democratic Party not only lacks a majority in parliament, but... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Italy be the next domino not to fall? Anti-euro parties probably have a better chance of forming a government in Italy than in France. The election of an Italian eurosceptic government would not spell immediate disaster, but risks to the... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Apr.) April’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor suggests that consumers loosened their purse strings over the Easter holidays and helps to allay concerns that real consumer spending growth is slowing sharply in the... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Mar.) Despite declining, German industrial production remained at a high level in March and grew strongly in Q1 overall. Other German hard data have been weaker, but surveys imply that GDP growth was strong... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Mar.) The latest retail sales data were much weaker than most had anticipated and will add to growing concerns about the health of the household sector. In particular, the sizeable slowdown in real retail... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Merkel gains momentum but challenges beckon While Angela Merkel’s prospects for September’s federal elections have improved recently, a surprise defeat probably wouldn’t be a game-changer for the German economy. Meanwhile, the rise of small... 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ethiopia: Talk of a manufacturing-led boom is overdone The success of Ethiopia’s fledgling manufacturing sector distinguishes the country from its African peers. But comparisons with Asia’s manufacturing-led boom are, at least as yet, premature. 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
