Commodities Weekly Commodities shrug off this week’s news Commodity prices traded in a relatively narrow range this week, despite M. Macron’s decisive win in the French Presidential election, weak commodity trade data out of China, a drop in US oil stocks... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: MPC banks on a smooth departure In the minutes of its latest meeting, the MPC commented that if the economy evolves in line with its forecast, rate hikes would be justified before markets currently expect. But judging by the market... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the hunt for yield soon be over? We think that the hunt for yield will end soon, as the available return on US Treasuries rises in response to tighter Fed policy than investors are anticipating. This probably wouldn’t result in the... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar unlikely to sink much lower The recent drop in the Canadian dollar to US$0.73, from US$0.75, presumably reflects new fears of a global oil supply glut, which have been weighing on crude oil prices. Although this downward... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Labour market very close to full health Almost every indicator suggests that US labour market conditions are the tightest they have been since the financial crisis, possibly even the tightest in decades. Nearly every sector is now operating... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (May) The small increase in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence leaves it at a level consistent with consumption growth rebounding to over 5% annualised in the second quarter. Spending... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the housing market heading for a major downturn? This week’s news brought further signs that the housing market is cooling and could suggest that we are on the cusp of a house price slump. But we doubt that the various indications of softness... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Mar.) Mexican industrial production continued to broadly stagnate in March, but this is still far from the collapse that the survey data are pointing to. Indeed, if anything, today’s data suggest that the... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Apr.) Despite a record high in Toronto, the national rate of annual house price inflation edged down to 13.4% in April, from 13.5%, reflecting the rapid slowdown in Vancouver and falling house prices in... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Retail Sales (Apr.) The weakness in core CPI inflation, which dropped below 2% in April for the first time since October 2015, will give Fed officials some pause for thought. But with the unemployment rate at a decade... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) & IP (Mar.) April’s sharp fall in consumer price inflation makes the rate hike we’ve been arguing would occur before the end of the year seem less likely. But we suspect the drop in inflation will be reversed... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Back to business for the ECB? The election of Emmanuel Macron as France’s next president has removed a big risk to the euro-zone economic outlook. This could allow the ECB to stop worrying about political risks and to concentrate... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Paltry trade benefits from US-China deal The trade deal announced between the US and China today won’t make any meaningful difference to the bilateral trade imbalance, which could still trigger a flare-up of tensions between the two sides in... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Property markets continue to chug along nicely Investment in euro-zone commercial property rose by 11% y/y in Q1, boosted by a surge in activity in Germany and Spain. And with yields falling, and capital values rising, at close to the rates seen... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Rental growth concentrated in a handful of markets Economic performance has typically improved in the last few months, but this has only translated into rental growth in a few locations. Sentiment in Norway and Russia saw notable improvements... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
