UK Commercial Property Outlook Income returns to centre-stage Last years’ dip in capital values will not be repeated in 2017. But with the economy unlikely to grow faster than its trend rate over the next year or two, rental growth will be modest and yields will... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Riksbank loosens while Norges Bank stands pat In the past month, central bank meetings have highlighted contrasts in the responses of policymakers towards inflation. In Sweden, inflation has been on an upward trend recently and is close to the... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Mar.) March’s fall in euro-zone industrial production confirms that the sector had a poor Q1. But that was partly due to the effects of unseasonably warm weather on energy output, while surveys point to a... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.) The headline credit data for April were stronger than anticipated, with lending holding up relatively well in response to policy tightening. That said, our adjusted measure of broad credit still... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q1) Hong Kong’s economy expanded in Q1 at the fastest pace in five years in y/y terms, boosted by strong growth in exports and investment. But this is likely to be as good as it will get. While external... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Can Moon defuse Korea’s demographic “time bomb”? One of the biggest challenges facing South Korea’s newly elected president, Moon Jae-in, is the country’s dreadful demographic outlook. Although there are steps the new government could take to boost... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank likely to bring more surprises for markets In a recent Quick Take audio recording (available here), we discussed why the Central Bank of Russia had caught the markets (but not us) off guard at its last two meetings and why interest rates are... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s central bank set to ease monetary policy further The Central Reserve Bank of Peru’s decision to cut its policy interest rate by 25bp, to 4.00%, took most analysts by surprise, but not us. We expect one further 25bp cut, to 3.75%, over the coming... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q1), Consumer Prices (Apr.) The first estimate of German Q1 GDP showed that the economy got off to a fairly strong start to the year. But April’s inflation data confirmed that, ignoring Easter timing effects, underlying price... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q1), Consumer Prices (Apr.) The first estimate of German Q1 GDP showed that the economy got off to a fairly strong start to the year. But April’s inflation data confirmed that, ignoring Easter timing effects, underlying price... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Infrastructure: Don’t believe the hype Australian Treasurer Scott Morrison made a big song and dance about new infrastructure spending in the Federal Budget. But while he shouldn’t be considered a public enemy as some new infrastructure... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is inflation really rising? There is a widespread view that the world is in a period of “reflation” in which both economic activity and inflation are picking up. But there is little or no evidence of a sustained increase in... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Prospects for euro-zone equities brighten Equities in the euro-zone performed better over the past month than those in the US, amid further good news on the region’s economy and the fading of political risk after France’s presidential... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update How will the crisis in Venezuela affect oil production? Continued weakness in Venezuela’s oil output this year should help the market to rebalance. In fact, the potential for further reductions in production represents an upside risk to prices. 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Are investors too relaxed about the outlook for inflation in the US? 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Does slowing rental growth pose a risk for house prices? Affordability constraints have weighed on rental growth in recent months which, in theory, could lead to slower house price gains. However, the large number of variables which influence house prices... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
