Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Mar.) Although manufacturing sales values rose by a strong 1.0% m/m in March, this largely reflected higher prices rather than strong sales volumes. Nevertheless, the stronger gains in unfilled orders and... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q1 2017) First quarter GDP data from Russia were a touch stronger than expected and are all the more encouraging given that calendar effects will have pulled down the growth figure for Q1. Our GDP forecasts... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Early elections in Austria revive eurosceptic threat The collapse of Austria’s ruling grand coalition has triggered an early general election, to be held in October, which could see the far-right and eurosceptic Freedom Party entering government. An... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update When will the FTSE’s Brexit rally end? The FTSE 100’s near 20% rise since the EU referendum has endorsed our view that the economic effects of Brexit will be less damaging than many had feared. But there are reasons why the rally might... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy probably dodged recession in Q1 Surprisingly strong retail sales figures support our view that the South African economy held up better in Q1 than many feared. The effect of recent political turbulence, however, will not be felt... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response CML Lending Trends (Q1 2017) Growth in house purchase mortgage advances is stuck in low gear, as high prices weigh on demand and BTL lending remains sluggish. Barring a major relaxation in lending terms, which is unlikely, we... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How much slack is there in the euro-zone labour market? The recovery in the labour market is unlikely to put significant upward pressure on wage growth. Accordingly, the ECB will be very cautious when it comes to tightening policy. 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland not done with rate cuts yet Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Iceland to cut interest rates is likely to be followed by another cut later this year. Granted, strong economic growth will put pressure on domestic inflation... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Mar.) Generally speaking, the Labour Force Survey data painted positive picture for occupier demand. Yet, the ongoing squeeze on real incomes means that occupier demand for retail property will stay... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Impact of mainland-HK bond connect likely to be small Regulators this week approved a scheme that will allow investors with brokerage accounts in Hong Kong to invest directly in mainland bond markets, set to be launched before the end of this year. But... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Mar.) The latest labour market figures highlighted that wage growth remains weak, despite the continued decline in labour market slack. 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the euro-zone about to boost the global economy? While there are encouraging signs that the euro-zone is becoming less of a drag on the global economy, there are reasons not to expect a substantial boost from the region. 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank likely to sound more cautious on economic outlook While the Bank of Canada will likely hold interest rates at 0.50% next week, the balance of risks around its neutral stance on the interest rate outlook are beginning to tilt to the downside, mainly... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Wages (Q1) & Consumer Confidence (May) Record low wage growth suggests that underlying inflation will stay below the RBA’s target range for another year or two yet and it goes some way to explaining why households aren’t particularly happy... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update New measures unlikely to revive banking sector New powers granted to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) could in theory speed up resolution of cases of stressed assets that have burdened the banking sector in recent years. But the measures are likely... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Labour would ease the fiscal squeeze significantly If implemented, the Labour manifesto could boost GDP growth – by increasing investment spending – at the cost of higher debt which would potentially result in higher interest rates. 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
