Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Apr.) World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 5% y/y rise in global steel production in April, down from 5.7% in the first quarter. Nonetheless, output was growing strongly in all the large producing... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Economic prospects to maintain support for the euro The euro’s recent appreciation against the US dollar appears to reflect better prospects for euro-zone growth and has occurred despite expectations that ECB monetary policy will remain very loose... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (May) Despite the weak tone of May’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey, growth in retail spending is still likely to put in a better performance in the second quarter. 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Apr.) After a sharp decline at the start of the year, net capital outflows have crept up again recently. Unless we witness another misstep on exchange rate policy though, outflow pressure should remain... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack London Housing Chart Book - Bumping Along House price growth in London has slowed sharply while transactions are falling. Both developments are being driven by the very high level of prices. With buyer interest more or less stagnant and house... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Recession continues, but non-oil GDP picks up Nigeria’s economy continued to contract in Q1, albeit at a slowing rate. Fading problems in the oil sector and the improvement of the non-oil sector suggest that growth will return in Q2. 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Regional recovery takes hold First quarter GDP estimates for Emerging Europe published this month beat expectations across the board and suggest that growth in the region as a whole picked up to a three-year high of 2.3% y/y... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Apr.) April’s public sector finances set the scene for a rise in borrowing for the 2017-18 fiscal year as a whole. However, the increase in borrowing should be temporary and fiscal policy is still set to... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs & German Ifo (May) The strength of both the euro-zone Composite PMI and the German Ifo in May provide further evidence that the economic recovery gained pace in Q2. 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Labour Force Survey (Apr.) Despite April’s rise in the Swedish unemployment rate, it remains low by recent standards. And with over one third of firms suffering from a shortage of labour, we still expect wage growth to pick up. 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Much greater capacity shortages needed to lift inflation Japan is on the longest streak of growth in more than a decade. But the lesson of the last growth spurt is that capacity shortages would have to intensify much further to generate major price... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (May) The rather sharp fall in the manufacturing PMI in May suggests that the economic recovery may now be slowing again. Meanwhile, price pressures remain subdued. 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Apr.) The better-than-expected batch of Russian activity data for April indicate that the economy probably grew by 0.7-0.8% y/y at the start of Q2, up from 0.5% y/y in Q1. 22nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal out of the EDP, but not out of the woods Portugal is on the brink of exiting the “corrective arm” of the EU’s Excessive Deficit Procedure, but it is a long way from escaping strict EU oversight of its budget. 22nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Does low volatility really spell trouble for the US stock market? There is a view that a big correction in the US stock market lies around the corner, because volatility is very low. This view has been influenced by the fact that volatility was very low before the... 22nd May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update How big a risk does a China slowdown pose to the US? The economic slowdown underway in China is perhaps the biggest external risk facing the US economy. However, growth would need to slow far more than we think is likely to knock the US recovery off... 22nd May 2017 · 1 min read
