Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) Although the headline inflation rate remained at 1.6% in April, the decline in core inflation provides further evidence of disinflationary pressures in the economy. Spare capacity and very low wage... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is rising household debt a concern? The latest New York Fed report on consumer debt and credit made waves this week with the news that household debt surpassed its 2008 peak in dollar terms in the first quarter. But that is nothing to... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will strong demand continue to lift euro-zone office rents? Strong employment growth in the euro-zone augurs well for office occupier demand. Coupled with limited net additions, we think euro-zone prime office rents will move higher in the years ahead. 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Apr.) We wouldn’t read too much into the batch of weak April activity data for Poland, which were depressed by calendar effects. The underlying trend still seems to be one of strong growth. 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (May) The strong tone of May’s CBI Industrial Trends Survey comes on top of April’s overwhelmingly-upbeat Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey and provides another reason to be optimistic that the economy has... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro’s rise adds to reasons for ECB caution Diminishing political risk and early expectations of ECB asset purchase tapering have driven the euro up to around its highest level since before QE began. We think that the single currency will fall... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Narrow budget deficit obscures fiscal strains Despite some fiscal loosening, we expect that Nigeria’s federal budget deficit will be just 2.5% of GDP in 2017. But this measure provides a misleading sense of the country’s fiscal health. 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: further interest rate cuts unlikely Chile’s central bank cut its policy interest rate by another 25bp, to 2.50%, but with the economy showing tentative signs of recovery, we think the easing cycle is over for now. We expect the policy... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Time to worry about another slowdown in China? Economic growth in Emerging Asia picked up again in the first quarter of the year, thanks largely to stronger export demand. The slowdown that now appears to be underway in China is unlikely to derail... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Macron’s cross-party cabinet confirms focus on reform President Emmanuel Macron’s ministerial appointments suggest that he is serious about pushing through economic reforms. However, the challenge of the National Assembly elections looms large and it may... 18th May 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does China’s slowdown mean for commodities? Growing evidence that China’s economy is decelerating has raised concerns about the impact of softer demand on global commodity markets. While we acknowledge that China’s slowdown will be a powerful... 18th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Spending growth holding up despite real pay squeeze With CPI inflation set to reach just over 3% later this year and pay growth still subdued, the squeeze on real earnings growth should intensify as the year progresses. But the news that spending on... 18th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Why this house price slowdown will persist We don’t expect a resurgence in house price growth anytime soon. In London and the south, the forces that drove post-crisis house price growth have petered out. And underlying demand and supply... 18th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM markets fall, but economic fallout should be limited Political developments in the US and Brazil have led to sizeable falls in EM currencies and equities today but the economic implications for EMs are likely to be limited. Even in Brazil itself, it’s... 18th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q1) Chile’s economy narrowly avoided entering a technical recession in Q1 and, while growth has all but ground to a halt in recent quarters, there are tentative signs of a recovery. Meanwhile, the current... 18th May 2017 · 1 min read
