Emerging Markets Economics Update Three reasons not to fear Fed balance sheet normalisation There are still plenty of unanswered questions about the Fed’s plans to reduce the size of its balance sheet, but there are at least three reasons to think that it won’t cause a major dislocation in... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sterling’s Brexit recovery can go further While the pound could fall again if the economy weakens or Brexit prospects worsen, there are good reasons to think that its recent appreciation can continue. 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India’s gold imports (Apr.) The latest trade data show a jump in gold imports in the two largest consumers last month. India’s imports soared ahead of the forthcoming Goods and Services Tax (GST), while the strength of China’s... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Apr.) and Housebuilding (Q1) While mortgage lending has softened in recent months, housebuilders have fared better, increasing the rate of construction in Q1 – a trend we expect to continue. And, with the first quarter’s economic... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: Second Estimate & Expenditure Breakdown (Q1) The second estimate of Q1 GDP presented a slightly weaker picture of the economy’s recent performance than previous numbers had suggested. But growth is likely to pick back up in the quarters ahead. 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek debt relief set to be pushed back again Amid continued discord between the IMF and Germany, any commitment to Greek debt relief looks set to be delayed for another year. The Eurogroup has proposed new loan extensions to make the debt... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Introducing our Taylor Rules for Central and Eastern Europe The combination of strong growth and rising inflation in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has shifted attention to when and how policymakers might respond. To help answer this, we’ve created Taylor... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Spanish GDP Breakdown (Q1) The second release of Spanish GDP confirmed that quarterly growth edged up in Q1 despite a slowdown in consumer spending. While we expect growth to slow in the coming quarters, Spain is still set to... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The shifting shape of economic growth The economy appears to be in a new phase where mining investment is no longer as big a drag on growth but net exports, consumption and dwellings investment are providing less support. The risk is that... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea to keep rates unchanged for some time yet The Bank of Korea (BoK) left interest rates on hold today and the governor’s accompanying press conference makes clear the central bank is in little hurry to adjust rates anytime soon. We continue to... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Metals prices could fall sharply as sentiment turns Sentiment towards metals has deteriorated somewhat since the start of 2017. We had warned that this could happen as the large investor inflows into metals markets last year were mostly premised on... 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada still neutral on rate outlook The Bank of Canada’s decision today to keep its policy interest rate at 0.50% and to remain neutral on the outlook for rates shows that, despite strong economic growth and employment gains... 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor A strong end to a strong quarter for world trade The CPB’s latest figures confirm what other indicators had suggested – that world trade experienced fairly rapid growth in Q1. And the signs are that this momentum has spilled over into Q2, albeit at... 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude oil stocks declined by the second largest amount so far this year, in spite of an increase in net imports. Gasoline and distillate inventories also fell, as demand for petroleum products surged. 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily What does Moody’s downgrade mean for Chinese financial markets? 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Apr.) The inventory of existing single-family homes for sale declined once again in April, and now stands at a 22-year low. That lack of supply contributed to a modest drop in home sales, despite some signs... 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
