UK Economics Weekly Will growth rebound? April’s business surveys provide hope that GDP growth will rebound in Q2 from the sharp slowdown in Q1 confirmed in this week’s official figures. Indeed, the Markit/CIPS PMI is now consistent with... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is it foolhardy to trust the soft data? The message from survey evidence that activity in the euro-zone has picked up substantially since the end of last year has yet to be fully reflected in the official data. Indeed, quarterly growth of 0... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe: construction rebound driving faster growth A recovery in construction appears to have been the key driver of the marked acceleration in GDP growth across Central Europe in Q1. This rebound is likely to be sustained over the course of 2017... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What is behind the stagnation in German retail rents? Prime German retail rents have stagnated recently, in spite of a healthy economic backdrop. In the absence of a pick-up in occupier demand, it is difficult to see strong rental growth in the years... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Credit bubbles – where do the risks lie? We have been arguing for some time that Emerging Asia’s current credit binge is unsustainable, and that credit growth in a number of countries will need to slow for a crisis to be avoided... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A year of two halves The latest evidence suggests that the Australian economy entered a soft patch in the first half of the year, with the quarterly rate of GDP growth perhaps averaging only 0.3%. As some of this weakness... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update OPEC deal should allow Gulf to ease austerity further OPEC’s decision to rollover its oil output cuts didn’t come as a surprise, but the fact that calls for deeper cuts never even made it on to the table suggests that the Gulf economies are resistant to... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC extends output cuts by nine months As was widely expected, OPEC announced earlier today that it, together with Russia and some other non-OPEC producers, would be extending their output cuts by nine months, until the end of March 2018... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Politics takes centre stage (again) The economic data from Latin America have continued to improve over the past month, but this has been overshadowed by developments on the political front. The scandal that has engulfed Brazil’s... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Buoyant euro-zone will help the SNB fight franc strength Given the improvement in the euro-zone’s political and economic outlook and the relative stance of monetary policy, we no longer expect the Swiss franc to appreciate against the euro. But the franc... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Treasuries vulnerable, even if Fed shrinks its balance sheet slowly 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: MPC strikes a dovish tone Today’s MPC statement from the governor of the South African Reserve Bank supports our nonconsensus view that policymakers will cut their key policy rate to 6.50% by the end of the year. 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the recovery in construction built on strong foundations? Euro-zone construction sentiment is now back above pre-crisis norms. And with low borrowing costs set to continue supporting property prices and activity, prospects for the sector are the best in... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview How much further can the unemployment rate fall? We estimate that non-farm payrolls increased by 200,000 in May. The unemployment rate probably held steady at 4.4%, but the surveys suggest that it will fall further soon and the upward pressure on... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fed’s balance sheet plans not a big concern News that the Fed will proceed very cautiously in scaling back its huge balance sheet does not change our view that US monetary policy will be tightened more rapidly than the markets anticipate this... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Rents and capital values see modest rise Even though investment activity looks soft compared to the elevated levels seen in 2015, the value of deals transacted over the last twelve months would not look too low compared to most other years... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
