Capital Daily We still think that the best days for the US stock market are over 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (May) The ISM manufacturing index was little changed at a fairly healthy level in May, suggesting that economic growth is still on track to rebound to 3% annualised in the second quarter. 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack A weaker dollar fails to lift commodities With the exception of a few agriculturals, the prices of most commodities fell last month. Markets chose to shrug off the persistent weakness in the US dollar. Instead, data showing a slowdown in... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Why has rental growth slowed? The recent slowdown in rental growth does not reflect an easing in tenant demand but rather seems to reflect a surge in the number of new multifamily developments being brought to market. As... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q1) The 1.0% q/q rise in first quarter GDP means that, after having contracted for eight consecutive quarters, Brazil has finally exited recession. While our GDP forecast for this year is still above... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Election 2017 Preview With major differences between the main parties both on Brexit and the stance and mix of fiscal policy, the outcome of the general election on June 8th could have a rather greater impact on the... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update What’s behind the turnaround in Finland? The recent pick-up in growth in Finland has been broad-based, and Government reforms have improved the medium-term outlook. We expect GDP growth to beat the consensus forecast this year. 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (May) Having fallen sharply in April, South Africa’s manufacturing PMI surged May. We don’t put much faith in this indicator, but today’s reading supports our view that the economy is holding up better than... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (May) May’s Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI suggests that growth in the sector has reaccelerated in Q2, following the slowdown in Q1. And there are signs that this rate of growth will be maintained in the... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) The PMIs in Switzerland, Sweden and Norway weakened again in May, but still point to faster manufacturing growth. But the Danish PMI rebounded after April’s plunge. 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Mixed messages from China’s PMIs The official and unofficial May manufacturing PMIs for China told somewhat different stories. However, we are inclined to put more weight on the unofficial PMI, which fell for the third successive... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (May.) House prices have now fallen for three months in a row. But in the context of the the strong price gains seen in recent years, there is little cause for concern. 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italian GDP Breakdown (Q1) The upward revision to Italy’s GDP in Q1 is not as encouraging as it first appears. And with the chance of an early election rising, Italy’s already-weak economy looks vulnerable to the rise of euro... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) Last month’s PMIs for Emerging Europe suggest that conditions in the manufacturing sectors of the region’s two largest economies – Turkey and Russia – are improving. Moreover, manufacturing in Central... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss & Finnish GDP (Q1) Switzerland’s economic recovery gained pace in Q1 and business surveys suggest that this momentum will continue. But with inflation set to remain very subdued, we think that the SNB will keep policy... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (May) May’s PMI reading suggests that India’s manufacturing sector weakened a touch last month, but remained in relatively good shape following demonetisation. 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
