Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (May) May’s final Composite PMI points to a pick-up in euro-zone GDP growth in Q2. And this strength is broad based. While growth has remained strongest in Germany and Spain, recoveries in France and Italy... 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (May) May’s PMI data suggests that recoveries in the Gulf’s non-oil sectors have lost a bit of momentum, but we don’t think this marks the start of a sharp downturn. Elsewhere, the PMIs brought further... 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (May) The modest decline in Turkish inflation, to 11.7% y/y last month, supports our view that the MPC will end the recent monetary tightening cycle at next week’s meeting. 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Further slowdown in consumption growth ahead There is growing evidence that the household sector has begun to falter and, given the worryingly weak outlook for income growth, the situation is unlikely to turnaround any time soon. Indeed, we... 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Euro-zone property cycle a step closer to turning Prime euro-zone property yields still have scope to fall over the next 18 months. However, with a stronger outlook for the euro-zone economy, we have increased our forecasts for government bond yields... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico survey data rebound to pre-Trump levels Survey data from Mexico strengthened markedly in May and are now generally back to their levels prior to Trump’s election victory in November. Elsewhere, the latest survey data from Brazil continue to... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Equities will struggle to make further headway Stock markets have shrugged off the uncertainty created by Brexit, with the FTSE 100 rising by 19% since the EU referendum last year. However, the key supports of the rally have now faded. First, the... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Short-term prospects improve, but clouds gathering In the last few months, economic growth prospects have improved across Europe, boding well for rental growth and pointing to sharper falls in property yields in the next 12-18 months. But the improved... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Election Special With less than a week to go until the General Election on 8th June, the polls have continued to narrow and the outcome is less certain than it seemed a few weeks ago. In this special edition of Brexit... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Nothing inspiring about recent GDP growth The recent flurry of strong economic growth may look impressive but, looking beneath the surface, there’s still a lot to worry about. While the extraordinary housing investment boom has set new... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly A case of the jitters hits commodity markets Oil prices have continued to fall on fears that the OPEC supply cuts will not be sufficient to clear the excess in the market. In addition, a weak May unofficial PMI reading out of China on Thursday... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Markets bank on comfortable Conservative win Despite the recent narrowing in the opinion polls, markets still seem to be banking on a sizeable Conservative majority in Thursday’s General Election. Any different outcome could therefore have a... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Outlook for consumption growth bright The rise in real consumption in April, following an upwardly revised gain in March means that a sharp increase in consumption growth in the second quarter is now largely baked in the cake. Following... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Consumer slowdown won’t throw recovery off track Although the euro-zone’s consumer sector currently appears to be in good shape, the combination of higher inflation compared to last year and continued weak wage growth points to annual household... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Apr.) The moderate 0.8% m/m increase in export volumes in April, following the stronger gain in the month before, provides further evidence that exporters are finally tapping into the recent pick-up in... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
