Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Apr.) Retail sales made a subdued start to Q2, but May’s rise in consumer confidence to a 10-year high suggests that growth should pick. 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (May) Despite the weakness in May’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor, growth in consumer spending on retail goods still looks set to rebound in Q2. Nonetheless, the squeeze on households’ real incomes is likely to... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will wage growth strengthen again? We expect the expansion in the labour force to slow in coming years which suggests that wage growth should soon start picking up again. However, the shift to flexible employment forms, globalisation... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Parliamentary majority will aid Macron’s reform efforts Emmanuel Macron’s party, La République En Marche, looks set to win a parliamentary majority in elections that kick off this Sunday, diminishing fears of political paralysis. But the path to reform... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Surveys still point to rebound in GDP growth in Q2 While the downward revision to the ONS’ estimate of Q1 GDP growth from 0.3% to just 0.2% was a disappointment, the business surveys still suggest that a pick-up in growth in Q2 is on the cards... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA willing to ignore the weak economy Even though the economy may have contracted in the first quarter, the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates at 1.5% today and retained its optimistic view on the economic outlook. We suspect... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Strong growth, weak inflation Global economic growth is likely to pick up a bit in the second quarter, led by household consumption, which is being boosted by an upturn in consumer confidence. The recovery continues to be broad... 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update More to structural EM weakness than investment behaviour Our view that EMs have entered a period of structurally weaker growth has started to become the mainstream, but there is a tendency to misdiagnose this as solely a problem of deficient investment... 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will euro strength put euro-zone equities under pressure? While we expect the euro to strengthen further over our forecast period, we think that equities in the euro-zone will continue to outperform those in the US, where the economic recovery is more mature... 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily May be not – how will markets react if the Conservatives don’t win? 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile IMACEC (Apr.) Having contracted in February and March on the back of a copper mine strike, Chilean economic activity returned to growth in April and we think the economy should continue to recover over the coming... 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Sentiment starts to shift on Poland’s MPC The combination of strong growth and rising core inflation has led some members of Poland’s MPC to strike a more hawkish tone in recent months. However, while this is consistent with our view that... 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Economic fallout from Qatar diplomatic spat likely to be limited The recent spat between Qatar and regional powers has escalated over the past 24 hours, but there are good reasons to think that the impact on these economies and global energy markets will be limited... 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What to make of Korea’s supplementary budget? South Korea’s new government today announced plans for a supplementary budget worth 11.2trn won (0.7% of GDP). But with parliament approval by no means guaranteed, we are not raising our growth... 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How and when will the ECB “normalise” policy? We think that the ECB will taper its asset purchases to zero in the first six months of 2018 and begin raising interest rates in 2019. The euro-zone economy as a whole should continue to perform well... 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (May) May’s Markit/CIPS report on services still implies that GDP growth has accelerated after the sharp slowdown experienced in Q1. And the forward-looking balances suggest that this pace can be maintained... 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
