Commodities Update Recovery in China’s commodity imports likely to be short-lived China’s commodity import volumes bounced back in May, after a weak April. However, we doubt that this marks the beginning of a sustained recovery. Slower credit growth is expected to lead to weaker... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (May) The drop in Egyptian inflation in May supports our view that last month’s surprise interest rate hike will be a one-off. That said, rate cuts are unlikely to come on to the agenda until the turn of... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & French Trade (Apr.) April’s rise in German production is an encouraging sign that the industrial upturn is back on track, and surveys point to a sharp acceleration to come. 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Apr.) The plunge in the international trade surplus to a six-month low of $0.6bn in April won’t last long as it was almost entirely due to the fall in coal exports caused by Cyclone Debbie, most of which... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q1 Revised) & Current Account (Apr.) Revised data show that GDP growth was weaker last quarter than initially reported. However, the early indications for the current quarter are positive and we reiterate our 2017 GDP forecast of +1.5%. 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish banks unlikely to hold back recovery Banco Popular’s difficulties jar with improving conditions elsewhere in Spain’s banking sector, so its forced sale does not appear to signal further trouble ahead and will not hold back the economic... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rates to rise further than most expect by end-2018 The press conference that followed today’s MPC meeting in Poland highlighted that some members of the Council are becoming more hawkish. While this supports our view that the policy interest rate will... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Stocks of both crude oil and gasoline unexpectedly rose last week, driven by a rebound in crude imports and a slump in demand. 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Is the world now back to full employment? The unemployment rate in most advanced economies is now lower than it was on the eve of the financial crisis. However, the “natural” rate of unemployment has probably fallen and the supply of labour... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus How would the housing market fare without Help to Buy? The Help to Buy equity loan scheme has undoubtedly played a role in boosting mortgage approvals and the supply of new homes. Yet it is easy to overstate its importance and to understate the role of... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Rising orders bode well for euro-zone exports Net trade probably contributed little to euro-zone GDP growth in Q1, but the outlook for exports is encouraging. The monthly goods export and import values data show a decline in the goods trade... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (May.) Mortgage applications jumped by 7% in the week ending 2nd of June. Despite a fall in mortgage rates, that rise was driven not by remortaging, but by applications for home purchase, which were last... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update The outlook for Nordic and Swiss equities Nordic and Swiss equities have generally performed very well this year, but prospects differ significantly between countries. We expect Norwegian equities to outperform over the next 18 months as oil... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI unmoved by weakness of GDP and inflation data The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) opted to keep policy unchanged today despite the weakness of the latest inflation and GDP data. However, the less hawkish tone of the policy statement suggests that... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update China’s demand for Treasuries unlikely to anchor yields China has started to accumulated foreign exchange reserves again in recent months, having reduced them over the past few years. We expect reserves to continue rising, but doubt that this will weigh on... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
