Capital Daily Will the Fed be worried by trends in the financial markets? 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Tightness in tin likely to ease The likelihood that China will start exporting refined tin in much larger quantities should ease the relatively tight supply picture outside China. As such, we have revised down our end-2017 price... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the election really soften Brexit? It has been suggested that Prime Minister Theresa May’s failure to gain an overall majority in last week’s General Election means that that a much softer Brexit could be back on the table. However... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC output jumps Higher production in Nigeria and Libya boosted total OPEC production last month. However, stocks continued to fall and the group revised down its expectations for non-OPEC output this year. 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation to stay low despite strong labour markets The average inflation rate in advanced economies is likely to be close to 2% this year and next as the world economy expands steadily and key commodity prices remain fairly stable. Despite weaker CPI... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC to keep rates stable post-Fed and beyond The US Fed is poised to raise rates on Wednesday. When it last hiked back in March, the People’s Bank quickly followed suit. This time, however, we expect the PBOC to stay on hold and, indeed, to keep... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar: banking sector concerns slip under the radar Concerns over the impact on Qatar from its diplomatic spat with neighbouring countries have largely focussed on trade ties, but we think investors should be keeping a closer eye on Qatar’s banking... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK House Price Index (Apr.) and MLAR statistics (Q1) House price growth accelerated in March. But Bank of England data suggests that both LTVs and LTIs have been falling. Combined with falling buyer enquiries, that suggests price growth will cool again... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Has the natural unemployment rate fallen? A decline in frictional unemployment and shifts in the composition of the labour force, which is now on average older and better educated, mean that the so-called natural unemployment rate has fallen... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Should we worry about a new government in Finland? The collapse of Finland’s government will not throw the country’s economic reforms off track. We still expect the economy to grow by about 2% this year. And while the renewed political instability in... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Jun.) June’s fall in the German ZEW investor sentiment index was a slight disappointment. But investors still expect economic conditions to improve over the next six months and the more reliable business... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (May) After rising unexpectedly in May, we think that CPI inflation is now not far away from its peak. Indeed, the effects of the lower pound already appear to be fading at the start of the production... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Loan waivers are setting a dangerous precedent The announcement over the weekend of a debt write-off for farmers in Maharashtra extends the precedent set in Uttar Pradesh in April. Other states may now follow, at a significant fiscal cost. 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (May) Underlying inflation was stronger than expected in May and domestic inflation should rise further from its 63-month high. As this will help to offset any disinflationary impact from a stronger krona... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Watch What do the next eighteen months hold in store for oil prices? Crude oil prices have slumped again recently, despite OPEC agreeing to extend its output cuts by nine months. This Energy Watch sets out our view on what will happen to supply and demand over the next... 12th June 2017 · 1 min read
