Commodities Update Gold’s luck to run out The price of gold was largely unaffected by the Fed’s decision to raise its policy rate target by 25bp, to between 1.00% and 1.25%, yesterday. While many have attributed the resilience in the gold... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Is the optimism over coal demand justified? Hotter weather and faster economic growth have led to hopes that demand for coal will rise this year. However, improvements in energy efficiency and the rapid growth in renewable power mean that coal... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Real pay squeeze intensifies The squeeze in real wages looks likely to intensify as as inflation continues to rise to above 3%. However, nominal spending should continue to hold up well, supported by strong employment growth... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Have buy-to-let curbs supported owner occupiers? There is little evidence as yet that buy-to-let curbs have boosted mortgage lending to owner occupiers. While first-time buyer numbers do seem to have grown, that appears to have been driven by other... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (May) China’s activity data were broadly stable in May, but a slowdown in construction starts and growth in investment do not bode well for future metals demand. 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru Economic Activity (Apr.) Peru’s economy weakened further at the start of Q2, but with the government planning a major fiscal stimulus to offset the impact of severe flooding earlier this year, we expect growth to rebound over... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Growth to accelerate, but downside risks mounting In our baseline scenario, which still includes a fiscal stimulus early next year, we expect GDP growth to accelerate from 2.2% this year to 2.5% in 2018. The downside risks to that scenario have... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (May) The stagnation in industrial production in May is nothing to worry about since it follows a large gain in April, which itself was revised higher. Admittedly, recent falls in the oil price have... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Apr.) After a downward revised decline in March, manufacturing sales volumes rebounded by 0.5% m/m in April, indicating that the industrial sector began the second quarter on a firmer footing. Further... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to cut interest rate forecast The Norges Bank is likely to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting in June, but we think that it will revise its rate forecast down. After all, while economic growth has strengthened since the... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC strikes surprisingly hawkish tone While an interest rate hike in the UK within the next few months still looks unlikely, the hawkish tone of June’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) policy decision and minutes supports our view that... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC ends tightening cycle but stays hawkish The Turkish central bank ended the recent tightening cycle today, but high inflation, strong GDP growth (this year at least), and hawkish comments from the MPC, mean that a shift towards interest rate... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Other major central banks in no hurry to follow the Fed The Fed’s decision to raise interest rates again yesterday does not change the big picture that global monetary policy will remain highly accommodative. We expect policy rates to stay close to zero in... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Inflation and currency worries to keep Indonesian rates on hold Despite the poor growth outlook, Bank Indonesia left its policy rate on hold today at 4.75%. With inflation set to remain elevated over the coming months, the central bank is likely to be in little... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Sri Lanka GDP (Q1) GDP growth in Sri Lanka slowed last quarter according to the official figures, and is likely to remain weak throughout 2017 as fiscal and monetary policy are tightened. 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
