Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (May) The batch of robust Polish activity data for May suggests that the economy is probably growing by around 4.0% y/y, in line with Q1’s outturn. 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (May) According to the International Aluminium Institute, global primary aluminium output rose by 4.8% y/y last month, down from 6.4% y/y a month earlier. However, unlike in April when the growth was all in... 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is monetary policy really so accommodative? It is often assumed that monetary policy is highly accommodative simply because nominal interest rates are very low. But if the neutral real interest rate has fallen, monetary policy may not be as... 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Equities rise to fresh record highs The surge in Indian equities over the past few months has continued in June, with the benchmark Sensex stock index closing at a fresh all-time high on the 19th. The rally reflects in part a broader... 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q1) South Africa’s current account deficit widened a touch in Q1, but remained small by recent standards. This will help to shield the rand from the effect of political shocks. 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish & Finnish Labour Force Surveys (May) Swedish employment growth seems set to slow but the unemployment rate should nevertheless drift lower this year after being unchanged in May. And with over one third of firms suffering from a shortage... 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What would happen if Brazil fails to pass pension reform? If Brazil’s pension reforms were to collapse, the immediate impact on the economy would be determined by the knock-on effects to broader financial conditions. Over the longer term, we estimate that a... 19th June 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How surprising is the combined strength of the Nikkei and yen? 19th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets unperturbed by political and interest rate risks The surprise outcome of the General Election and the MPC’s unexpectedly tight vote on interest rates have triggered only a muted market reaction. Admittedly, trade-weighted sterling fell to its lowest... 19th June 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks are not painting a clear picture of demand Exchange stocks generally fell over the last month. The bigger picture is that there have been sharp drawdowns in global exchange stocks of aluminium and zinc and a large build in copper inventories... 19th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Macron’s majority bodes well, but reform won’t be easy The results of the French parliamentary elections revealing that Emmanuel Macron’s La République En Marche has achieved a huge majority bode well for the French economy and for EU relations. But he... 19th June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (May) Export values didn’t rebound in May while import values edged higher which suggests that net exports turned into a drag on GDP growth in Q2. However, business surveys suggest that external demand... 19th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Decent Q1 for most and surveys bode well for Q2 The latest national accounts data showed that quarterly GDP growth in most of the Nordic and Swiss economies picked up in Q1, led by Finland. The Finnish economy expanded by 1.2% q/q, followed by... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the US stock market bound to hit the skids? Those who claim that the US stock market is bound to hit the skids soon point to the fact that Shiller’s cyclically-adjusted price/earnings ratio is now more than double its long-run average of 14... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Government makes a few Brexit concessions With face-to-face talks with the EU set to begin next week, it is still unclear whether or not the General Election result – which clearly weakened Theresa May’s negotiating mandate – will lead to a... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly The losing streak continues It has been a poor week for most commodity prices. The Fed’s decision to hike interest rates on Wednesday weighed on the prices of gold and industrial metals. Oil prices continued to drop, partly due... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
