Asia Economics Update Subdued inflation means interest rates in Taiwan will remain low With the economy experiencing a steady recovery and inflationary pressures still very subdued, it was no surprise that Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) decided to keep its policy rate on hold today at 1... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update No change in sight for Philippines rates Today’s decision by the central bank in the Philippines (BSP) to keep its main policy rate on hold at 3.0% was widely expected. But while the consensus among analysts is that the BSP will hike rates... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Portugal continue to outperform Italy? Portugal’s economy has outperformed Italy’s in recent years as easing austerity, progress with labour reforms and improvements in competitiveness have all borne fruit. We expect this to continue. 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norway rate cut off the table, but a long way from rate hikes The Norges Bank revised up its forecast for interest rates this year, so a cut now looks unlikely. But while the Bank expects to raise its policy rate in 2019, we think that it will be unchanged until... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Prime rents in Istanbul have further to fall Prime rents in Istanbul have come under pressure from various headwinds recently. And with the prospect of further rises in vacancy, competition for tenants is likely to see rents move lower still. 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s economic recovery to continue The stronger-than-expected 1.1% q/q rise in Argentine GDP in Q1 was driven by a pick-up in domestic demand, which is likely to have been the key beneficiary of looser fiscal policy ahead of October’s... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil & Argentina sell-offs should be seen in context Financial markets in Brazil sold off yesterday following the decision by a Senate Committee to reject the government’s labour reform bill, while the stock market in Argentina has dropped today after... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi markets rally as MSCI points to EM upgrade Saudi Arabia’s equity market has rallied on the back of MSCI’s decision to put the country on its “watch list” for an upgrade to Emerging Market status, but there are a few reasons to think that the... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Second-quarter rebound driven by consumer spending The latest data indicate that GDP growth has rebounded to nearly 3% annualised in the second quarter, mainly due to a similar-sized gain in real consumption growth. Indeed, although underlying retail... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (May) The 1.1% m/m rise in existing home sales in May was better than expected, although that only partly revered the previous month’s decline. The bad news is that May’s rise in sales has only worsened the... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude stocks fell again last week. However, production and net imports both rose. Meanwhile, higher demand prompted a fall in gasoline inventories. 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Why are risky assets proving resilient to lower oil prices? 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Conditions to remain loose despite further tightening by the Fed Even though the US Fed will start to reduce its asset holdings, probably in Q4, global monetary conditions are set to remain accommodative for a while yet. Meanwhile, growth in bank lending in... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Macron’s 7% unemployment rate achievable? While we think that President Macron’s labour reform plans will be broadly successful, his target for France’s unemployment rate to fall to 7% by 2022 still seems overly ambitious. With his planned... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Revisiting EM links with China The EMs with the deepest trade ties to China have, unsurprisingly, benefitted most from the economy’s rebound since the start of 2016. These countries lie mostly in Asia. It follows that these are the... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the inclusion of Chinese A-shares in the MSCI a big deal? We are not surprised that stock markets in China have barely risen in response to MSCI’s decision to include the country’s A-shares in its Emerging Markets (EM) Index. Admittedly, the initial... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
