US Housing Market Update Will smaller footprints give a lift to new home sales? The drop in the average floor area of new homes started in the first quarter suggests builders are now moving towards constructing more affordable homes. And, given that a lack of cheaper homes has... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Does the flatter yield curve signal a slowdown in GDP growth? Yield curve inversions have been near-perfect leading indicators of recessions over the past forty years, but there is little evidence to suggest that the flattening of the curve that we have seen... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is this as good as it gets? We suspect that economic growth in Emerging Europe is close to peaking in this cycle. Growth in Russia is likely to accelerate further over the course of 2017-18, but this will be more than offset by... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Strong growth should continue to support financial equities The failure of two Italian regional lenders over the weekend was a reminder of the vulnerabilities still present in parts of the global financial system. However, the big picture is that the system is... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Housing boom turning to bust After a strong start to the year, the economy now appears on the verge of a slowdown as the housing boom turns to bust. Home sales have tumbled and we fear that the coming correction in house prices... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Temer clings on Despite the crisis that has engulfed his administration, Brazil’s president, Michel Temer, is managing to cling on to office and there is now a reasonable chance that he serves out his full term to... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Is below-target inflation in Norway a problem? The Norges Bank’s latest projections suggest that it is unwilling, or unable, to loosen policy by enough to hit its inflation target. This will weigh on economic growth over the coming years, and... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Solid French economic outlook bodes well for occupier demand With President Macron’s parliamentary majority putting him firmly in control in Paris, the prospects for the French economy are pretty good. The economic recovery will continue to boost firms’... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Output Monitor (May) After a strong start to 2017, growth in China’s refinery output appears to be slowing. This corroborates broader activity and investment data, which have lost some momentum going into the second... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Mining charter an ominous sign of things to come Revisions to the charter governing South Africa’s mining sector have been opposed by the industry and rattled the markets. In this Watch, we examine the industry’s complaints, explain the political... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch How important is Africa for agriculturals? Given Africa’s large size and geographic diversity, most of the world’s key agricultural commodities are produced somewhere on the continent. In this Commodities Watch, we first discuss the importance... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) May’s euro-zone money and credit data point to continued steady economic growth. But problems in Italian banks have seen lending there continue to contract. 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (June/Q2) After edging lower in each of the past three months, the Nationwide house price index bounced back in June to leave house prices more or less unchanged from their level in February. 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to drop easing bias Since the Riksbank last met in April, underlying inflation has been stronger than expected, international political risks have diminished and economic conditions in Sweden’s trading partners have... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Jun.) Small business confidence rose in June and suggests industrial production will continue to record modest gains. While firms reported severe staff shortages, price pressures remain subdued. 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update State profligacy is undermining centre’s gains Discussions on the health of India’s public finances often focus exclusively on the national level, where relatively good progress has been made reining in the budget deficit in recent years. Less... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
