UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (May) May’s household borrowing figures provide another reason to think that consumer spending growth may have picked up pace in Q2, after a disappointing performance in Q1. But the figures will clearly add... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian equities continue to rally Asian equity markets have continued to rally, with stock markets in Taiwan, Korea, India and Indonesia all recently hitting new record highs. 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (May.) While mortgage approvals edged up in May, there is still lost ground to make up following a weak start to 2017. That said, with the economic backdrop broadly supportive, we expect a modest recovery in... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jun.) June’s impressive batch of Economic Sentiment Indicators suggests that regional growth in Central and Eastern Europe remained above 4% y/y in Q2. The continued strong run of survey data supports our... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (May) At £190m in May, net lending to the property sector more than reversed last month’s fall. Moreover, the broad-based nature of May’s improvement, along with lenders’ limited exposure to property assets... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Will US shale continue to flood the oil market? US shale production growth is likely to slow sharply towards the end of the year as the recent low prices cap the number of drilling rigs. What’s more, fewer efficiency gains will start to weigh on... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Overhauling financial year would bring little economic benefit Shifting the start of India’s financial year from April to January, as the government appears to be considering, would align it with the norm in most other countries and therefore make life easier for... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Vietnam GDP (Q2) Vietnam’s economy is regaining momentum, helped by a recovery in the agriculture sector. Looking ahead, with exports likely to remain strong and private sector credit still expanding at a rapid clip... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (May) We wouldn’t read too much into the fall in retail sales in May as sales remain stronger than they were throughout most of 2016 and the early part of this year. We’ve pencilled in another rise in... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Growth to remain subdued in Australia While GDP growth in both Australia and New Zealand in the first quarter was weaker than most had anticipated, this was partly the result of temporary factors that will fade. Nonetheless, while the... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Another rise in net imports contributed to a slight increase in crude oil inventories last week. At the same time, gasoline and distillate stocks fell in spite of weak demand for petroleum products. 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch US Fed to press on with hikes; others in no hurry to follow We still think the US Fed is likely to raise interest rates two more times this year and to start gradually shrinking its balance sheet in Q4. But the ECB will probably not start tapering its asset... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap MSCI review prompts mixed reactions in Saudi and Argentina MSCI’s latest review of its benchmark equity indices has prompted significant moves in some of the largest frontier stock markets over the past month. Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul has jumped 8% since MSCI... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the euro continue to climb? We think that the euro’s latest rise against the US dollar was a justified reaction to Mario Draghi’s hints that QE will be tapered early next year, despite warnings from the ECB that the comments... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
