Europe Commercial Property Update Are investors questioning rental growth prospects in Dublin? With a large pipeline, concerns about future rental growth are probably behind the flat-lining of prime Dublin office yields. But while rental growth will ease, we don’t think rents are about to fall. 27th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The continued strength of the Conference Board consumer confidence index, which rose from 117.6 to 118.9 in June, is beginning to look a little suspect when other measures have fallen back in recent... 27th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Is the EM recovery the real deal? The recovery in emerging market growth over the past year is likely to level out in the coming quarters. However, this stability masks important shifts among individual countries. We expect China’s... 27th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Apr.) The 0.2% m/m gain in house prices was the smallest gain on the Case-Shiller measure since May 2014, and appears to confirm that price pressures have been easing since February. However, an easing in... 27th June 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Low volatility here to stay Volatility in commodity markets is likely to remain lower than average for the next year. The main exception could be the oil market where any change in tack by OPEC would cause sharp moves in prices. 27th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer credit in the FPC’s sights The publication today of the Financial Stability Report revealed that while the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee is fairly sanguine about the resilience of the financial system as a whole... 27th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jun.) June’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey provided further reason to think that consumer spending growth re-accelerated in Q2, after a pretty poor performance in Q1. 27th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italian bank rescue raises long-term concerns While the state aid granted to two regional Italian lenders over the weekend has reduced the risks to the Italian economy in the near term, it shows that the so-called “doom loop” between the banking... 27th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Consumer spending should continue to hold up well After slowing sharply in the first quarter, household spending growth appears to have rebounded in the second. A combination of strong labour markets, low household debt burdens and steady growth of... 26th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (May) The softness in underlying durable goods orders in May suggests that business equipment investment expanded at a much slower pace in the second quarter. Nonetheless, we still estimate that second... 26th June 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India’s gold imports (May) The latest trade data show gold imports moved in opposing directions in the two largest consumers last month. The fall in China’s gold imports suggests weaker underlying demand, while India’s imports... 26th June 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Copper price to struggle The price of copper has been trading in a fairly narrow range in the last few weeks, but is still significantly higher than at the start of 2016. In this Metals Watch, we discuss the main drivers of... 26th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (May.) Mortgage approvals fell in May, and the near term outlook is subdued. But with the economic backdrop a little stronger in Q2 and interest rates still supportive, mortgage approvals should begin to... 26th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jun.) June’s German Ifo survey suggests that GDP growth will accelerate sharply in the months ahead. While growth is unlikely to match the pace implied by this survey, we see the German economy... 26th June 2017 · 1 min read
