Precious Metals Update Is palladium flying too close to the sun? Increased speculative activity appears to have been the main driver of the recent surge in the price of palladium, which reached a sixteen-year high of $910 per ounce on 9th June. However... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (May) May’s figures suggest that the public sector finances have made a solid start to the fiscal year, although we doubt that this will continue for too much longer. And fiscal policy is still set to... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil demand to rise after a poor start to the year Global oil demand was disappointing in the first quarter of this year. Indeed, this is one reason why prices have continued to fall despite OPEC and some major non-OPEC producers extending their... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi reshuffle clarifies succession, but hurdles to reform remain The decision by Saudi Arabia’s King Salman to promote his son, Mohammed bin Salman (MbS), to crown prince provides some clarity on the line of succession. That being said, many of the barriers to the... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (May) Inflation in South Africa ticked up in May, but we still expected that inflation will ease later this year, prompting the Reserve Bank to cut its key policy rate by a total of 50bps. 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is this the beginning of a commodity downturn? The main commodity indices have edged lower this year but the headline figures mask very diverse underlying price movements. Looking ahead, we think that the macroeconomic backdrop for commodities... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Economic Tendency Survey (Jun) The Swedish Economic Tendency Indicator points to strong and broad-based growth, consistent with an acceleration in wage growth and a pick-up in underlying inflation. 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Housing activity constrained by lack of inventory The latest drop in mortgage interest rates has not boosted housing market activity, which is being constrained by a severe lack of inventory. With housing starts faltering, we doubt inventory levels... 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (May) World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 4.7% y/y rise in global steel production in May, down from 5.0% in April. Nonetheless, this still compares very favourably with the 0.8% increase in steel... 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Rally in Canadian dollar may have run its course Despite hawkish comments from the Bank of Canada, we don’t expect the rally in the Canadian dollar to go much further. Given signs of a correction in the housing market, we doubt that the BoC will... 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily What if Chinese A-shares are finally included in the MSCI EM Index? 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Should we worry about consumer credit? Consumers still appear confident enough to borrow in order to sustain spending growth in the face of higher inflation. But how worried should we be that higher household borrowing and debt will... 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Little scope for German spending boost from lower savings Structural factors have pushed the German household saving rate higher in recent years. So we doubt that a fall in the saving rate will see consumer spending growth gain much pace in the months ahead. 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s MPC signals loose policy to stay The Hungarian MPC’s extremely dovish post-meeting press statement provided further evidence that policymakers are as yet untroubled by growing signs of capacity constraints. Monetary policy is set to... 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (May) May’s activity data from Russia were generally a bit stronger than expected and add to evidence that the economic recovery has continued to strengthen in Q2. 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (May) Capital outflows from China were broadly unchanged last month and are likely to persist at this relatively low level for the foreseeable future as households and firms increase their exposure to... 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
