Emerging Europe Economics Update Falling oil prices will keep inflation subdued for longer The recent fall in oil prices will keep EM inflation close to its current multi-year low for longer, but it won’t trigger a collapse in inflation. 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jun.) The drop in Brazilian inflation in the first half of June to a fresh decade-low of 3.5% y/y, is Brazilian inflation has fallen below the BCB’s central target for the first time in almost seven years... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines: Duterte undermining country’s economic prospects One year since coming to power, President Duterte of the Philippines has not been the disaster for the economy that some feared. His wisest move has been to hand over responsibility for economic... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the rift between MPC members growing? After a surprisingly large split in the vote at June’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting, two speeches this week provided further signs of a growing rift on the Committee. Indeed, the fact that Andy... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jun.) Although the euro-zone Composite PMI fell in June, it still suggests that the economic recovery continued at a healthy pace in Q2. But the small falls in the survey’s forward-looking components... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Signs of normalisation in the investment market All in all, there was still little, if any, evidence to suggest that the Brexit process is having a major impact on property market sentiment or activity levels. And there was little to alter our view... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Can housebuilders boost their productivity? Construction sector productivity in the UK has in part been held back by slow adoption of new construction techniques. And while productivity has struggled to rise in countries with higher use of pre... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Falling Amsterdam office stock to drive rental value surge Amsterdam office vacancy has dropped from 17% to 8%, but we expect it to fall to 4% by 2019 as limited completions are outstripped by stock removals. This will drive a 15% lift in prime rents and will... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly All Blacks to beat British Lions in economic tests If the relative performance of the economies of New Zealand and the UK/Ireland over the next few years is anything to go by, the All Blacks will beat the British & Irish Lions 2-1 in the rugby test... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Central bankers will stick to 2% inflation targets for now Janet Yellen’s remarks about the case for reconsidering the Fed’s inflation target have generated some attention this week. But in practice, there is little prospect of the inflation target being... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Are Treasuries vulnerable to a rebound in inflation expectations? 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is HTB propping up home sales? The number of homes purchased using HTB suffered its normal seasonal slump in the first quarter. But on an annual comparison, there are no signs that the rate of take-up of the scheme is moderating... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jun.) The rise in Mexican inflation in the first half of June probably seals the deal for another 25bp hike in the central bank’s policy interest rate, to 7.00%, later today. But there are also signs that... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Winners and losers from the latest drop in oil Within the EM world, the main beneficiaries of the recent drop in oil prices are Korea, India, Turkey, and South Africa, while the biggest losers are the Gulf States, Russia and Nigeria. That being... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Jun.) Manufacturers’ overwhelmingly positive response to June’s CBI Industrial Trends Survey adds to other evidence suggesting that the slowdown in manufacturing output shown in the hard data will prove... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update How low will oil prices go this time? Fears about unrelenting growth in US oil production have pulled down oil prices again, despite stocks beginning to fall. However, faster demand growth combined with OPEC’s production cuts should be... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
