Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Apr.) GDP growth was surprisingly weak in the first quarter and the slowdown in our New Zealand Activity Proxy (NZAP) in April suggests activity was subdued at the start of the second quarter too. However... 26th June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Key economies pick up in Q2 After a very poor start to the year, most of Africa’s larger economies bounced back at the start of Q2. South African activity data suggest that the region’s most industrialised economy returned to... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Will falling oil prices knock the economy off course? The further drop in oil prices this week, to below $43pb, means that the recovery in mining investment seen in the first half of the year may be at least partly reversed in the second. That said, we... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade still doing well in Q2 Although the latest CPB data suggest that global trade growth slipped at the start of the second quarter, we doubt that this marks the start of a sustained downturn. Indeed, more timely evidence... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly House price inflation set to plunge Housing was top of the agenda at a meeting of federal and provincial policymakers earlier this week, amid signs that the Bank of Canada is perhaps preparing to hike interest rates. Meanwhile, with... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the FTSE 100 continue to climb? Our upbeat view on the outlook for the UK economy might suggest we would expect the FTSE 100 to record significant further gains this year and next. But even if the economy remains resilient, there... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Argentina: rate cuts coming, but easing to be gradual The sharp drop in Argentine inflation to an 18-month low in May is likely to prompt the central bank to shift into easing mode over the coming quarters. But with core inflation likely to be slow to... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Jun.) Preliminary PMIs, which were published by Markit today, suggest that the recovery in advanced economies continued strongly in June. 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil slides on oversupply concerns The price of Brent fell below $45 per barrel this week, reflecting investor concerns about oversupply. In contrast, the prices of most industrial metals rose, despite little in the way of positive... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (May) As expected, new home sales bounced back from their large drop in April, with a solid 2.9% m/m rise in May. A strong economic backdrop and relatively large inventory of new homes should underpin sales... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus 20 years on: assessing the past and future of Hong Kong 1st July marks the 20th anniversary of Hong Kong’s return to China. The city’s economy has continued to prosper over the last two decades, defying gloomy predictions made by some before the handover... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: One year on At the one year anniversary of the UK’s historic vote to leave the EU, the Brexit process is still firmly in its infancy. Although face-to-face negotiations with the EU finally began this week, the... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Do lower risk-free rates justify higher share prices? The bears claim that US equities will hit the skids soon because Shiller’s cyclically-adjusted price/earnings ratio (CAPE) for the S&P Composite is now more than double its average since 1881 of 14... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (May) While the drop in the headline inflation rate to 1.3% in May, from 1.6%, can be partly explained by lower energy price inflation, the decline in certain core inflation measures are weaker than most... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe enters Brexit talks on a strong footing As official negotiations about Britain’s exit from the European Union began this week, the remaining member states appeared to be in a robust position. The euro-zone economy, in particular, is still... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
