Japan Economics Weekly Is public sector debt sustainable? The ratio of public debt to GDP in Japan is more likely to rise than fall over the coming decade. But the situation is not as precarious as it may seem, given the government’s large holdings of... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF Economic Barometer (Jun.) June’s rebound in the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer leaves it consistent with a pickup in annual GDP growth to around 2%. But with inflation still very low, we expect the SNB to keep the stance of... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Slow wage growth to persist despite strong job growth While the recent run of positive news on the health of the Australian labour market is certainly encouraging, it doesn’t alter the bigger picture that there is still plenty of spare capacity. This... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Jun.) The official manufacturing PMI continues to point to robust economic growth. But the data should be taken with a large pinch of salt given that the index has recently diverged with more reliable... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Ind. Prod., H’H Spending, Unempl. & Cons. Prices (May) Today’s activity data suggest that industrial production expanded at a decent pace in the second quarter. However, consumer spending appears to have eased a touch last month, while price pressures... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asian financial crisis twenty years on There are more differences than similarities between the situation now and the position many Asian countries found themselves in on the eve of the Asian financial crisis 20 years ago. But there is no... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth edges up in May Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) for May shows that growth edged up for the first time this year. This was due to a seasonal jump in passenger traffic around a national holiday. As officials continue... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Unemployment rate likely to fall even further We estimate that the monthly gain in non-farm payrolls rebounded from 138,000 in May to 200,000 in June. The unemployment rate probably fell further, perhaps to as low as 4.1%. Meanwhile, base effects... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth slows at start of Q2 Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth softened a little in April, but in several countries this was driven by calendar effects that should reverse in May. 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we still worry about the banks? Recent developments have underlined that the banking sector is far better capitalised in the US than in the euro-zone. But the more important point is that the financial sector has strengthened in... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update New forecasts for the ruble and lira We have revised our forecasts for the Russian ruble and Turkish lira and we now expect a smaller rise in the ruble versus the dollar by the end of next year. We also now think future falls in the lira... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC signals rate hike in August The hawkish tone of today’s post-meeting statement and press conference supports our non-consensus view that the first interest rate hike in the Czech Republic will come at August’s MPC meeting... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update First thoughts on Brazil’s new inflation target The decision to lower Brazil’s inflation target from 4.5% currently to 4.25% in 2019 and 4.00% in 2020 is clearly a step in the right direction, but it’s worth bearing in mind that inflation targets... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Flash CPI (Jun.) June’s rise in German HICP inflation and a sharper fall in the Spanish rate suggest that euro-zone inflation probably edged down from May’s 1.4%. German core inflation is now rising, but underlying... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Currencies struggle, but equities remain strong Most African currencies weakened in June, though Nigeria’s was a key exception. The naira will probably stay pretty stable on both the official and parallel rates. 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Jun.) June’s EC business and consumer surveys point to a sharp acceleration of euro-zone growth, which will increase speculation about ECB asset purchase tapering to come and add to upward pressure on the... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
