Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Industrial & Services Production (May) & Serv. PMI (Jun.) While both industrial and services output grew in May, both sectors are set to record weaker growth in Q2 than in Q1. But as the monthly data were a poor guide to GDP growth in Q1, we are inclined to... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Have oil prices bottomed out? Oil prices fell for most of last month as rising production in the US and in some OPEC countries weighed on investor sentiment. However, falling US stocks and a slight dip in the number of US drilling... 4th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are economic expansions killed off by rising inflation? It is widely thought that recessions are generally triggered by central banks stepping on the brakes in response to rising inflation. But many recessions have not been preceded by an increase in... 4th July 2017 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Should we worry about low EM credit spreads? Following a long-lasting decline, emerging market (EM) credit spreads have rarely been much lower than they are now since the financial crisis. This does not mean that they are bound to pick up any... 4th July 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Industrials power ahead The prices of most industrial metals rose last month, supported by some weakness in the US dollar and more encouraging data out of China. Although activity there slowed in the second quarter, there... 4th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (May) The stronger-than-expected 0.8% m/m gain in Brazilian industrial production in May, coupled with large upward revisions to April’s data, suggests that the sector may have made a modest positive... 4th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (June) The dip in the commercial construction PMI in June only partially reversed the previous month’s rise. As such, it does not alter the impression that developers see little risk that the current... 4th July 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank drops easing bias from forward guidance By indicating that it no longer expects to cut interest rates, the Riksbank has taken a small step toward monetary policy normalisation. While the Bank indicated that it will continue to guard against... 4th July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jun.) June’s PMI data suggest that Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economy has lost a bit of steam, but this probably partly reflected a deterioration in sentiment on back of last month’s dip in oil prices. The... 4th July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA’s fears about household indebtedness persist The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left interest rates on hold at 1.5% for the tenth consecutive meeting today and retained its fairly optimistic tone on the outlook for economic growth in the... 4th July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (May) The stronger than expected rise in retail sales values in May, alongside the surge in sales in April, suggests that real consumption growth accelerated in the second quarter. That said, we doubt this... 4th July 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Industrials boosted by signs of stability in China A tentative revival in China’s economic activity late in the second quarter gave a renewed lift to the prices of the more industrial metals in June. However, it failed to translate into higher... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Will Nordic and Swiss bond yields keep rising? Government bond yields in the Nordic and Swiss economies have risen recently, and for the most part we expect this to continue. Yields in Sweden are likely to rise the furthest, while those in... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Is the worst over for Latin America? Following two years of recession, Latin America’s economy has shown signs of recovery since the start of this year. And, while political problems are never far from the headlines, we expect economic... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (June) The purchasing managers’ indices for June provide further evidence that a broad-based pick-up in economic activity is underway in advanced economies, but that it is not generally feeding through to a... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
