US Data Response Int. Trade (May) & ISM Non-Manufacturing (Jun.) Despite the small narrowing of the trade deficit, from $47.6bn in April to $46.5bn in May, net trade still looks to have been a small drag on GDP growth in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the non... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (May) Despite a big one-time jump in gold exports, the 2.0% m/m increase in export volumes in May, following fairly strong upward revised gains in the previous two months, builds an even stronger case than... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jun.) The sharper-than-expected rise in Russian inflation last month, to 4.4% y/y, was driven by an increase in fruit and vegetable inflation. Core inflation fell to a record low. Accordingly, we still... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jun.) Mortgage applications for home purchase lost some steam in June, with the 0.9% m/m increase the smallest since February. With mortgage interest rates once again on the rise, and a severe shortage of... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook How long will the recovery last? A pick-up in exports will lift growth in Emerging Asia to a five-year high in 2017, but mounting domestic headwinds means that this is unlikely to be sustained. We expect growth to slow in 201819... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Asset management crackdown risks sparking volatility Earlier this week, the People’s Bank vowed to do more to regulate asset management products. While it is wise to seek to defuse the risks from these products sooner rather than later, doing so without... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: ANC divided, but moderates fight back The ANC’s policy conference highlighted divisions within the party, and suggested a significant pushback against its recent leftist turn. While the president’s more populist faction is weakened, a... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack GDP growth still looks to have accelerated in Q2 The incoming economic data appeared to take a bit of a turn for the worse over the past month, with the headline balances of all three Markit/CIPS PMIs falling in June. What’s more, consumer... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook As good as it gets The recovery in GDP growth in Emerging Europe is close to peaking and, while we expect the region’s largest economy, Russia, to strengthen over the next 12 months or so, that will be more than offset... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Floods add upside risks to inflation outlook We think headline inflation will have risen in June to a five-month high on the back of a further rebound in food price inflation. Looking ahead, while we don’t expect consumer price inflation to rise... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer Prices (Jun.) The fall in Swiss inflation in June largely reflected lower energy prices. With core inflation holding close to zero, the SNB will stick to its ultra-loose policy stance over the next couple of years. 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (May) The trade surplus bounced back in May as coal exports returned to more normal levels following a sharp fall in April as a result of disruptions caused by Cyclone Debbie. As such, at this stage it... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update EU trade deal could boost productivity somewhat The impact of the proposed tariff cuts in the EU/Japan free trade agreement should not be overstated. But the deal will also reduce non-tariff barriers and barriers to foreign direct investment which... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rise in coal production belies long-term challenges A rise in domestic coal production this year has led some to suggest that the government could yet achieve its goal of ending its reliance on imports within the next three years. But the sector... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (May) Annual house price inflation was a robust 6.6% in May according to CoreLogic. The chronic lack of inventory is behind the rise, and with limited chance of inventory levels improving this year, house... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC sounds dovish, but divisions growing The press statement that followed today’s MPC meeting in Poland remained extremely dovish, but it does seem that there are growing divisions within the Council. With wage growth and core inflation... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
