Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Production (May) South African manufacturing data for May show that the sector’s contraction eased in the middle of Q2. Combined with a pickup in consumer spending, this supports our view that GDP growth returned to... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Could households withstand higher interest rates? Household debt has remained elevated in the euro-zone as a whole, but there has been significant deleveraging in the countries that needed it most. Given positive trends in the labour market, we... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jun) The relatively upbeat tone of June’s retail sales monitor adds to other evidence that retail sales volumes re-accelerated at the end of Q2. And there are signs that shop price inflation has already... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Falling inflation to open door to interest rate cuts in Turkey With Turkish inflation now on a downwards path, it seems increasingly likely that the central bank will start to loosen monetary conditions before the year is out. The easing cycle will probably begin... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Yen to weaken further US 10-year government bond yields have climbed to a two-month high in recent days and we expect them to rise further in coming months. By contrast, the Bank of Japan has underlined its determination... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (Jun) Headline inflation in Norway slowed in June, and we think that it will fall further. Over the next few years, it is likely to remain below the Norges Bank’s target, so we think that interest rate... 10th July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jun.) Egyptian inflation inched up to 29.8% y/y in June and recent subsidy cuts will cause it to rise a bit further in the next few months. Even so, as the effects of last year’s sharp drop in the pound... 10th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (May) Despite the slowdown in Turkish industrial production growth in May, it still looks like overall GDP growth may have been stronger in Q2 than it was in Q1. 10th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Jun.) The Economy Watchers Survey continued to improve in June and points to strong gains in consumer spending. 10th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun.) In June, core consumer price inflation hit its highest level, Chinese New Year aside, since 2011. And after falling since February, producer price inflation stabilised. But with economic activity set... 10th July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Consumption by sector: winners and losers While we expect that overall consumption growth will slow further this year and remain subdued in 2018 as well, not all areas of spending are equally vulnerable. Past behaviour suggests that spending... 10th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (May) Machinery orders fell to a one-year low in May. But with capacity shortages intensifying and capital goods shipments rebounding, business investment should continue to expand. 10th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Is the economy succumbing to Brexit worries? The disappointing tone of this week’s survey evidence and hard economic data has raised concern that the economy is now succumbing to Brexit fears. However, there were probably some non-Brexit related... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How stretched is the valuation of emerging market equities? The price/earnings ratio of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has increased to a level that is well above its long-run average. However, in our view, the valuation of the index is not especially high... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Still waiting for stronger wage pressures Labour market data released in the US and Japan today underline that wage inflation remains elusive throughout the developed world. We still think that average earnings growth is likely to pick up in... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
