India Economics Update Trade position remains comfortable India’s trade deficit retreated in June from a 30-month high in May. With imports of key commodities such as oil and gold likely to stay in check, the overall trade deficit should remain at a... 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru Economic Activity (May) Peruvian economic activity rebounded strongly in May as the effects of severe flooding at the start of the year started to fade and we expect the recovery to continue over the coming months. 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What can past tightening cycles tell us about Fed policy? Markets focused this week on supposedly dovish comments in Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s semi-annual testimony to Congress, but in truth she did little more than repeat the existing Fed line. As long as... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will euro-zone peripheral bonds shrug off ECB tapering? Government bond yields have risen recently by more in Germany than in some “peripheral” countries of the euro-zone. This has happened even though the sell-off in bonds has been caused by concerns that... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly All good, for now … The prices of most commodities, with the exception of agriculturals, rose this week. Data showing strong Chinese import demand gave a boost to the prices of industrials, while a further drop in US... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Cautious appraisals holding down house price growth Experience suggests that with housing market conditions so tight, house prices should be rising considerably faster than their current rate of around 6% y/y. One reason why they are not may be that... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Government willing to make concessions Comments from Eurosceptic MPs revealing their indignation at paying an “exit bill” to the EU should not be conflated with the Government’s position. Indeed, the Government seems willing to make... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are opportunistic investors calling time on the cycle? European investment activity is likely to have risen again in Q2. But, while retail funds are competing aggressively for core assets, opportunistic investors appear to be rotating out of low-yielding... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & IP (Jun.) & UoM Cons. Conf. (Jul.) Production data for June confirm that the industrial sector saw its biggest quarterly expansion for three years in the second quarter. Furthermore, while the retail sales and confidence data, also... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly One more interest rate hike at most this year The Bank of Canada’s new-found confidence in the economy and forecast rebound in core inflation have prompted speculation that interest rates might rise much higher this year. But with household debt... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The modest 0.1% m/m increase in core consumer prices in June, which left the annual core inflation rate unchanged at 1.7%, continues the recent run of soft inflation data. Earlier this week, Chair... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: New fiscal measures don’t go far enough The change of Romania’s government late last month has prompted a shift in the direction of fiscal policy from loosening to tightening. But the new administration has struggled to put together a... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Will US gasoline demand recover from its weak start? US gasoline prices have been volatile so far this year but have generally followed oil prices lower. This Energy Watch examines the prospects for US gasoline demand over the rest of this year and into... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Fiscal shackles loosen but little stimulus in sight Euro-zone member states appear to have put their public finances largely in order now, with the European Commission deeming this week that even Greece has made sufficient progress to become compliant... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export growth to slow, but not collapse EM export growth ticked up in May, but the big picture is that the sharp acceleration caused by the rebound in global commodity prices over the past year or so is now behind us. We don’t expect EM... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
