UK Housing Market Data Response UK House Price Index (May.) House prices on the official index are rising faster than the other main measures, but that may partly be down to measurement issues. Nonetheless, the continued slowdown in London is consistent with... 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Regulatory campaign weighing on service sector growth The detailed breakdown of China’s Q2 GDP data that has just been released suggests that a tougher regulatory environment is weighing on service sector growth. So far the drag has been mild but it may... 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jun.) Saudi inflation remained in negative territory last month, although the introduction of new “sin” taxes on sugary drinks and tobacco caused the rate of decline ease. And there are reasons to think... 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Trump stimulus in jeopardy, but global fiscal policy being eased In our last Global Policy Watch, published in April, we argued that aggregate fiscal policy in advanced economies was likely to be loosened slightly in the coming year or two. Since then, the chances... 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q2) In contrast to the latest business surveys, the ECB’s Q2 Bank Lending Survey provided some evidence that the economic recovery might slow. However, with demand for credit still increasing, and banks... 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Should the government reappoint Mr Kuroda? While inflation remains well below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, Governor Kuroda deserves credit for a number of radical policy changes. His reappointment would therefore underline the government’s... 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela vote changes little, balance of payments strains intensify Yesterday’s referendum organised by Venezuela’s opposition-controlled National Assembly delivered a resounding defeat to the government, but the vote was unofficial and changes little in practice... 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Korea minimum wage hike should boost consumption The announcement over the weekend that South Korea will be increasing its minimum wage by 16% next year represents a victory for President Moon Jae-in, who was elected on a pledge to boost incomes and... 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Rates on hold, next move will be a cut The CBK’s decision to keep its key rate on hold signals its willingness to look through the current period of above-target inflation. With inflation having now peaked, we expect that the next move... 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Leadership signals sustained focus on financial risks Relatively few substantive decisions appear to have been made at the National Financial Work Conference but statements about the need to limit financial risks are significant. They suggest that the... 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can consumers survive the pay squeeze? With the effects of the lower pound appearing to be fading at the start of the production line, CPI inflation looks to have almost peaked already and we think that it will gradually start to head down... 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jun.) Our Capital Flows Tracker shows that net capital outflows from emerging markets remained subdued in the first half of 2017. We expect that outflows will stay low over the coming quarters. 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update How will the Riksbank react to the strengthening krona? The krona’s recent rise means that exchange rate effects will detract from Swedish inflation in 2018. But with domestic inflation set to rise further above 2%, this should not prevent the Riksbank... 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jun.) The slowing of Nigerian inflation in June will soon prompt policymakers to loosen monetary policy. Cuts will come faster than the consensus currently expects. 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What explains the continued slide in Saudi Arabia’s FX reserves? Saudi Arabia’s official foreign exchange reserves have continued to decline sharply, despite the marked improvement in the current account position over the past year or so. This has raised concerns... 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
