Europe Economics Update How will the ECB react to the euro’s rise? The renewed rise in the euro since yesterday’s ECB press conference may increase speculation that the Bank will have to change tack. But we doubt that it will be too worried about the currency at... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly The fiscal stimulus that wasn’t A year has passed since Japan’s government announced a huge fiscal stimulus. We argued at the time that the announcement would be followed by only a negligible increase in public spending. In fact... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Meteoric rise in the dollar will soon run out of fizz The recent rise in the Australian dollar to a two-and-a-half year high of just under US$0.80 has been meteoric. But while the dollar may orbit around that level for a bit, we don't think it will be... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to remain in neutral for a while After a marathon policy meeting today, Bank Indonesia confirmed that it was keeping its policy rates unchanged. Quite why the decision took so long is unclear – the decision was exactly what everyone... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack High-street spending ends Q2 on stronger footing The squeeze in real wages looks likely to intensify as inflation continues to rise to around 3%. However, nominal spending should continue to hold up well, supported by strong employment growth... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB taper announcement likely in October Today’s ECB press conference made us more confident that tapering will come next year. An announcement of the policy now seems most likely to come in October, rather than at the next meeting in... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Is the Fed nearly done raising interest rates? The markets remain sceptical that the Fed will continue to normalise interest rates over the next couple of years. But even with inflation still below target, the simple policy rules that the Fed... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Market Survey (Q2) Today’s RICS Construction Survey for Q2 showed that private commercial and industrial construction activity reversed the gains made during the first quarter. 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Four key risks facing the oil market The oil market’s attention is firmly on rising production in the US and the outlook for stocks there. However, there are a number of risks elsewhere which are potentially being overlooked and which... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fed and ECB not the only games in town for EMs EM bond markets have, for the most part, shrugged off the rise in developed market bond yields since the end of June. This strengthens our view that policy normalisation in developed markets is... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Non-residents buy more homes despite strong dollar Even with a strong dollar pushing up the price of US homes for most foreign buyers, in the year to March non-resident buyers increased their spending on residential property by 72%. We suspect fears... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Beginning of a gradual loosening cycle The SARB’s easing cycle will be gradual and data-dependent, but the key policy rate will fall to 6.00% by the end of 2018. Looser policy supports our non-consensus view that growth will pick up this... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Jun.) World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 4.5% y/y rise in global steel production in the first half of 2017, which compares favourably with the 0.8% rise in 2016. 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What does the health care debacle mean for tax reform? The apparent failure of the Senate Republicans to agree on a health care bill to replace Obamacare does not mean that President Donald Trump’s plans for a fiscal stimulus are dead and buried. 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Jun.) According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global primary aluminium output rose by 7.1% y/y last month, up from 4.8% y/y a month earlier. 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
